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Food basket in Gayéri

EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

4,943–8,088

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

4,248–8,755

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 7,034 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 4,943 and 8,088 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 4,248 and 8,755 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Gayéri: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 7,034 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 4,943 and 8,088 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 4,248 and 8,755 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,5005,0007,50010,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 11,418); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 6,196–7,794 7,022 5,516–8,472
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 5,506–8,008 6,854 4,920–8,510
Nov 2026
Next month		 4,943–8,088 6,544 3,772–9,274
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 4,731–8,362 6,464 3,103–10,520
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 4,248–8,755 6,549 2,013–11,418
Cost history (138 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20267,037
Aug 20267,034
Jul 20267,498
Jun 20267,417
May 20267,378
Apr 20267,254
Mar 20267,038
Feb 20267,002
Jan 20267,002
Dec 20256,942
Nov 20256,966
Oct 20256,606
Sept 20257,061
Aug 20257,020
Jul 20256,909
Jun 20256,158
May 20256,748
Apr 20256,235
Mar 20255,424
Feb 20255,293
Jan 20255,262
Dec 20245,228
Nov 20245,228
Oct 20245,527
Sept 20245,770
Aug 20245,770
Jul 20244,727
Jun 20244,727
May 20244,727
Apr 20244,609
Mar 20244,082
Feb 20243,760
Jan 20242,776
Dec 20232,776
Nov 20232,776
Oct 20233,148
Sept 20233,427
Jul 20233,476
Jun 20233,379
May 20233,256
Apr 20234,172
Mar 20234,798
Feb 20234,798
Jan 20234,565
Dec 20224,569
Nov 20224,610
Oct 20225,170
Sept 20225,684
Aug 20225,816
Jul 20225,316
Jun 20225,154
May 20224,458
Apr 20224,230
Mar 20224,208
Feb 20224,185
Jan 20224,171
Dec 20213,960
Nov 20213,804
Oct 20213,973
Sept 20213,644
Aug 20213,418
Jul 20213,241
Jun 20213,181
May 20212,834
Apr 20212,765
Mar 20212,323
Feb 20212,765
Jan 20212,401
Dec 20202,245
Nov 20202,353
Oct 20202,765
Sept 20202,816
Aug 20202,816
Jul 20202,816
Jun 20202,816
May 20202,504
Apr 20202,495
Mar 20202,479
Feb 20202,405
Jan 20202,195
Dec 20192,195
Nov 20192,351
Oct 20192,351
Sept 20192,765
Aug 20192,587
Jul 20192,062
Jun 20192,194
May 20192,130
Apr 20192,130
Mar 20192,071
Feb 20192,205
Jan 20192,255
Dec 20182,280
Nov 20182,291
Oct 20182,780
Sept 20182,850
Aug 20182,845
Jul 20182,772
Jun 20182,616
May 20182,616
Apr 20182,556
Mar 20182,699
Feb 20182,365
Jan 20182,434
Dec 20172,247
Nov 20172,111
Oct 20171,985
Sept 20172,034
Aug 20172,376
Jul 20172,257
Jun 20172,209
May 20172,094
Apr 20171,992
Mar 20171,632
Feb 20171,632
Jan 20171,547
Dec 20161,524
Nov 20161,524
Oct 20161,524
Sept 20162,196
Aug 20162,178
Jul 20162,160
Jun 20162,142
May 20162,160
Apr 20162,160
Mar 20162,066
Feb 20161,776
Jan 20161,731
Nov 20151,669
Oct 20151,596
Sept 20152,196
Aug 20152,196
Jul 20152,052
Jun 20152,088
May 20152,172
Apr 20152,088
Mar 20152,027
Feb 20151,890

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508