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Rice (imported) in Gounghin

CENTRE, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 0% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

418–533

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

407–567

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 25% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 418 and 533 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 407 and 567 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Gounghin: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 25% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 418 and 533 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 407 and 567 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 803); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 434–515 490 422–562 501 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 428–521 486 400–608 497 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 418–533 476 395–644 505 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 415–548 472 414–708 501 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 407–567 475 396–803 517 –
Price history (95 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026438
Jun 2026400
May 2026400
Apr 2026425
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026450
Jan 2026450
Dec 2025450
Nov 2025500
Oct 2025463
Sept 2025488
Aug 2025450
Jul 2025490
Jun 2025500
May 2025500
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025550
Feb 2025550
Jan 2025535
Dec 2024550
Nov 2024550
Oct 2024550
Sept 2024550
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024538
Jun 2024550
May 2024550
Apr 2024550
Mar 2024550
Feb 2024550
Jan 2024513
Dec 2023440
Nov 2023425
Oct 2023425
Sept 2023425
Aug 2023425
Jul 2023425
Jun 2023425
May 2023425
Apr 2023425
Mar 2023425
Feb 2023425
Jan 2023425
Dec 2022425
Nov 2022425
Oct 2022425
Sept 2022425
Aug 2022425
Jul 2022425
Jun 2022425
May 2022425
Apr 2022425
Mar 2022424
Feb 2022425
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021400
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021425
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021400
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020430
Jul 2020438
Jun 2020413
May 2020400
Apr 2020409
Mar 2020420
Feb 2020400
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019400
Nov 2019400
Oct 2019400
Sept 2019400
Aug 2019400
Jul 2019400
Jun 2019400
May 2019400
Apr 2019400
Mar 2019400
Feb 2019400
Jan 2019400
Dec 2018400
Nov 2018400

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3376-64-retail-kg.