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Sorghum (white) in Haaba

EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

131–303

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

134–340

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

19%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 131 and 303 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 134 and 340 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 19%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Haaba: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 131 and 303 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 134 and 340 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 19%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 560); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 230–310 281 182–325 323 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 168–314 239 165–383 272 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 131–303 198 123–444 217 19%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 131–325 199 124–509 223 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 134–340 203 106–560 235 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026304
Aug 2026288
Jul 2026272
Jun 2026262
May 2026263
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026188
Feb 2026182
Jan 2026159
Dec 2025157
Nov 2025194
Oct 2025243
Sept 2025324
Aug 2025342
Jul 2025331
Jun 2025321
May 2025293
Apr 2025286
Mar 2025273
Feb 2025218
Jan 2025196
Dec 2024199
Nov 2024218
Oct 2024346
Sept 2024375
Aug 2024338
Jul 2024279
Jun 2024259
May 2024252
Apr 2024237
Mar 2024219
Feb 2024209
Jan 2024189
Dec 2023203
Nov 2023213
Oct 2023228
Sept 2023237
Aug 2023238
Jul 2023218
Jun 2023229
May 2023225
Apr 2023211
Mar 2023211
Feb 2023201
Jan 2023171
Dec 2022135
Nov 2022146
Oct 2022319
Sept 2022354
Aug 2022353
Jul 2022334
Jun 2022318
May 2022305
Apr 2022289
Mar 2022281
Feb 2022262
Jan 2022231
Dec 2021219
Nov 2021240
Oct 2021253
Sept 2021218
Aug 2021199
Jul 2021194
Jun 2021185
May 2021183
Apr 2021182
Mar 2021171
Feb 2021160
Jan 2021144
Dec 2020133
Nov 2020118
Oct 2020128
Sept 2020176
Aug 2020159
Jul 2020149
Jun 2020151
May 2020158
Apr 2020158
Mar 2020154
Feb 2020131
Jan 2020131
Dec 2019130
Nov 2019108
Oct 2019125
Sept 2019134
Aug 2019152
Jul 2019142
Jun 2019148
May 2019161
Apr 2019170
Mar 2019174
Feb 2019173
Jan 2019160
Dec 2018142
Nov 2018130
Oct 2018143
Sept 2018231
Aug 2018249
Jul 2018227
Jun 2018218
May 2018209
Apr 2018211
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018193
Jan 2018191
Dec 2017181
Nov 2017136
Oct 2017161
Sept 2017211
Aug 2017193
Jul 2017154
Jun 2017143
May 2017153
Apr 2017163
Mar 2017149
Feb 2017136
Jan 2017136
Dec 2016126
Nov 2016114
Oct 2016135
Sept 2016172
Aug 2016169
Jul 2016159
Jun 2016156
May 2016159
Apr 2016159
Mar 2016146
Feb 2016146
Jan 2016136
Dec 2015132
Nov 2015116
Oct 2015146
Sept 2015198
Aug 2015196
Jul 2015191
Jun 2015186
May 2015177
Apr 2015175
Mar 2015172
Feb 2015153
Jan 2015155

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3377-135-retail-kg.