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Sorghum (white) in Hamélé

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 33% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

135–181

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

124–193

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 135 and 181 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 124 and 193 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Hamélé: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 135 and 181 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 124 and 193 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 150–173 161 136–183 250 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 142–178 161 118–193 253 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 135–181 159 109–197 247 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 127–186 158 108–224 226 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 124–193 159 95–248 228 –
Price history (139 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026175
Aug 2026161
Jul 2026167
Jun 2026161
May 2026164
Apr 2026167
Mar 2026165
Feb 2026177
Jan 2026173
Dec 2025197
Nov 2025225
Oct 2025233
Sept 2025233
Aug 2025235
Jul 2025242
Jun 2025248
May 2025239
Apr 2025258
Mar 2025261
Feb 2025246
Jan 2025242
Dec 2024234
Nov 2024258
Oct 2024280
Sept 2024274
Aug 2024271
Jul 2024250
Jun 2024250
May 2024258
Apr 2024263
Mar 2024228
Feb 2024219
Jan 2024233
Dec 2023245
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023243
Aug 2023233
Jul 2023236
Jun 2023228
May 2023233
Apr 2023246
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023232
Jan 2023219
Dec 2022217
Nov 2022237
Oct 2022289
Sept 2022300
Aug 2022290
Jul 2022274
Jun 2022261
May 2022266
Apr 2022270
Mar 2022248
Feb 2022199
Jan 2022196
Dec 2021187
Nov 2021194
Oct 2021191
Sept 2021194
Aug 2021187
Jul 2021180
Jun 2021188
May 2021184
Apr 2021172
Mar 2021165
Feb 2021161
Jan 2021159
Dec 2020146
Nov 2020161
Oct 2020161
Sept 2020150
Aug 2020150
Jul 2020133
Jun 2020133
May 2020133
Mar 2020131
Feb 2020129
Jan 2020114
Dec 2019124
Nov 2019117
Oct 2019113
Sept 2019102
Aug 2019117
Jul 2019118
Jun 2019123
May 2019136
Apr 2019148
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019150
Dec 2018150
Nov 2018171
Oct 2018180
Sept 2018207
Aug 2018205
Jul 2018200
Jun 2018200
May 2018200
Apr 2018196
Mar 2018189
Feb 2018192
Jan 2018178
Dec 2017167
Nov 2017195
Oct 2017186
Sept 2017187
Aug 2017185
Jul 2017178
Jun 2017184
May 2017187
Apr 2017172
Mar 2017172
Feb 2017166
Jan 2017155
Dec 2016140
Nov 2016168
Oct 2016162
Sept 2016150
Jul 2016158
Jun 2016168
May 2016172
Apr 2016164
Mar 2016155
Feb 2016153
Jan 2016140
Dec 2015147
Nov 2015155
Oct 2015170
Sept 2015172
Aug 2015168
Jul 2015158
Jun 2015169
May 2015166
Apr 2015148
Mar 2015142
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015151

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3378-135-retail-kg.