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Rice (imported) in Hamélé

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

466–527

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

455–541

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 466 and 527 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 455 and 541 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Hamélé: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 466 and 527 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 455 and 541 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 482–518 498 457–539 547 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 473–519 498 434–568 543 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 466–527 491 430–584 550 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 455–534 491 406–581 553 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 455–541 492 423–624 552 –
Price history (136 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026530
Mar 2026550
Feb 2026575
Jan 2026600
Dec 2025600
Nov 2025600
Oct 2025600
Sept 2025600
Aug 2025600
Jul 2025600
Jun 2025600
May 2025600
Apr 2025600
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025570
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024560
Oct 2024500
Sept 2024500
Aug 2024500
Jul 2024500
Jun 2024500
May 2024500
Apr 2024470
Mar 2024450
Feb 2024450
Jan 2024450
Dec 2023450
Nov 2023450
Oct 2023450
Sept 2023450
Aug 2023450
Jul 2023448
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022433
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022400
May 2022400
Mar 2022400
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021400
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021400
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020400
Mar 2020400
Feb 2020400
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019400
Nov 2019400
Oct 2019400
Sept 2019400
Aug 2019400
Jul 2019400
Jun 2019400
May 2019400
Apr 2019400
Mar 2019400
Feb 2019400
Jan 2019400
Dec 2018400
Nov 2018400
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018400
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018400
May 2018400
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018400
Dec 2017400
Nov 2017400
Oct 2017400
Sept 2017400
Aug 2017400
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017400
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017400
Feb 2017400
Jan 2017413
Dec 2016400
Nov 2016400
Oct 2016400
Sept 2016400
Jul 2016400
Jun 2016400
May 2016400
Apr 2016400
Mar 2016400
Feb 2016400
Jan 2016400
Dec 2015400
Nov 2015400
Oct 2015400
Aug 2015400
Jul 2015400
Jun 2015400
May 2015400
Apr 2015400
Mar 2015400
Feb 2015400
Jan 2015400

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3378-64-retail-kg.