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Maize (white) in Hamélé

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 41% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

93.4–144

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

88.9–164

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 41% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 93.4 and 144 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 88.9 and 164 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Hamélé: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 41% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 93.4 and 144 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 88.9 and 164 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 117–145 131 106–147 234 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 111–149 131 94.7–149 228 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 93.4–144 122 64.4–177 194 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 88.3–150 125 54.3–182 201 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 88.9–164 127 55.7–256 206 –
Price history (139 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026138
Aug 2026130
Jul 2026118
Jun 2026133
May 2026133
Apr 2026141
Mar 2026157
Feb 2026145
Jan 2026155
Dec 2025135
Nov 2025163
Oct 2025164
Sept 2025190
Aug 2025209
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025244
May 2025240
Apr 2025233
Mar 2025239
Feb 2025236
Jan 2025217
Dec 2024214
Nov 2024219
Oct 2024276
Sept 2024274
Aug 2024255
Jul 2024222
Jun 2024194
May 2024190
Apr 2024197
Mar 2024188
Feb 2024192
Jan 2024187
Dec 2023183
Nov 2023196
Oct 2023200
Sept 2023200
Aug 2023211
Jul 2023221
Jun 2023218
May 2023241
Apr 2023241
Mar 2023237
Feb 2023236
Jan 2023217
Dec 2022213
Nov 2022167
Oct 2022227
Sept 2022250
Aug 2022233
Jul 2022233
Jun 2022226
May 2022234
Apr 2022242
Mar 2022221
Feb 2022203
Jan 2022195
Dec 2021194
Nov 2021168
Oct 2021202
Sept 2021214
Aug 2021198
Jul 2021182
Jun 2021167
May 2021167
Apr 2021142
Mar 2021140
Feb 2021133
Jan 2021133
Dec 2020123
Nov 2020128
Oct 2020137
Sept 2020113
Aug 2020115
Jul 2020121
Jun 2020103
May 2020103
Mar 2020102
Feb 2020100
Jan 202084
Dec 201996
Nov 2019100
Oct 201999
Sept 201997
Aug 2019100
Jul 201995
Jun 201992
May 2019111
Apr 2019115
Mar 2019114
Feb 2019117
Jan 2019121
Dec 2018121
Nov 2018115
Oct 2018141
Sept 2018172
Aug 2018172
Jul 2018172
Jun 2018167
May 2018162
Apr 2018155
Mar 2018155
Feb 2018147
Jan 2018138
Dec 2017131
Nov 2017103
Oct 2017155
Sept 2017153
Aug 2017155
Jul 2017147
Jun 2017141
May 2017140
Apr 2017138
Mar 2017134
Feb 2017127
Jan 2017125
Dec 2016119
Nov 2016119
Oct 2016139
Sept 2016142
Jul 2016147
Jun 2016150
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016147
Feb 2016140
Jan 2016134
Dec 2015125
Nov 2015120
Oct 2015149
Sept 2015161
Aug 2015170
Jul 2015167
Jun 2015159
May 2015140
Apr 2015125
Mar 2015121
Feb 2015121
Jan 2015113

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3378-67-retail-kg.