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Rice (local) in Hamélé

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 3% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

384–460

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

379–474

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 384 and 460 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 379 and 474 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Hamélé: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 384 and 460 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 379 and 474 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 403–453 436 385–484 448 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 395–457 433 367–503 451 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 384–460 425 350–500 456 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 380–468 423 357–538 450 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 379–474 424 337–553 460 –
Price history (137 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026420
Aug 2026437
Jul 2026429
Jun 2026444
May 2026429
Apr 2026462
Mar 2026444
Feb 2026429
Jan 2026432
Dec 2025382
Nov 2025449
Oct 2025462
Sept 2025462
Aug 2025468
Jul 2025436
Jun 2025458
May 2025448
Apr 2025475
Mar 2025495
Feb 2025485
Jan 2025490
Dec 2024481
Nov 2024492
Oct 2024481
Sept 2024472
Aug 2024444
Jul 2024449
Jun 2024444
May 2024463
Apr 2024467
Mar 2024450
Feb 2024463
Jan 2024444
Dec 2023444
Nov 2023435
Oct 2023389
Sept 2023407
Aug 2023420
Jul 2023440
Jun 2023434
May 2023426
Apr 2023444
Mar 2023444
Feb 2023448
Jan 2023419
Dec 2022404
Nov 2022369
Oct 2022389
Sept 2022395
Aug 2022423
Jul 2022397
Jun 2022357
May 2022357
Apr 2022357
Mar 2022352
Feb 2022348
Jan 2022357
Dec 2021345
Nov 2021345
Oct 2021345
Sept 2021345
Aug 2021345
Jul 2021350
Jun 2021386
May 2021357
Apr 2021357
Mar 2021364
Feb 2021370
Jan 2021370
Dec 2020368
Nov 2020362
Oct 2020370
Sept 2020357
Aug 2020357
Jul 2020357
Jun 2020357
May 2020357
Mar 2020357
Feb 2020357
Jan 2020356
Dec 2019361
Nov 2019370
Oct 2019363
Sept 2019339
Aug 2019358
Jul 2019360
Jun 2019363
May 2019385
Apr 2019394
Mar 2019385
Feb 2019370
Jan 2019375
Dec 2018385
Nov 2018381
Oct 2018370
Sept 2018370
Aug 2018375
May 2018385
Apr 2018385
Mar 2018370
Feb 2018370
Jan 2018370
Dec 2017348
Nov 2017370
Oct 2017370
Sept 2017370
Aug 2017370
Jul 2017370
Jun 2017370
May 2017370
Apr 2017370
Mar 2017370
Feb 2017374
Jan 2017380
Dec 2016385
Nov 2016385
Oct 2016370
Sept 2016370
Jul 2016385
Jun 2016385
May 2016385
Apr 2016385
Mar 2016385
Feb 2016385
Jan 2016385
Dec 2015375
Nov 2015364
Oct 2015385
Sept 2015385
Aug 2015385
Jul 2015385
Jun 2015385
May 2015385
Apr 2015385
Mar 2015385
Feb 2015385
Jan 2015385

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3378-71-retail-kg.