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Millet in Hamélé

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 34% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

168–266

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

142–280

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 168 and 266 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 142 and 280 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Hamélé: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 168 and 266 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 142 and 280 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 187–233 205 167–275 324 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 178–251 206 158–334 334 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 168–266 204 146–332 318 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 143–262 200 95.6–406 287 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 142–280 203 79.4–445 299 –
Price history (139 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026234
Aug 2026204
Jul 2026190
Jun 2026201
May 2026214
Apr 2026217
Mar 2026241
Feb 2026232
Jan 2026235
Dec 2025214
Nov 2025252
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025286
Aug 2025310
Jul 2025357
Jun 2025374
May 2025346
Apr 2025321
Mar 2025354
Feb 2025328
Jan 2025348
Dec 2024310
Nov 2024345
Oct 2024356
Sept 2024362
Aug 2024355
Jul 2024293
Jun 2024276
May 2024276
Apr 2024254
Mar 2024250
Feb 2024241
Jan 2024241
Dec 2023248
Nov 2023272
Oct 2023259
Sept 2023267
Aug 2023259
Jul 2023244
Jun 2023233
May 2023307
Apr 2023305
Mar 2023284
Feb 2023286
Jan 2023291
Dec 2022304
Nov 2022344
Oct 2022372
Sept 2022371
Aug 2022384
Jul 2022368
Jun 2022336
May 2022336
Apr 2022336
Mar 2022286
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022241
Dec 2021217
Nov 2021246
Oct 2021241
Sept 2021257
Aug 2021214
Jul 2021226
Jun 2021231
May 2021214
Apr 2021231
Mar 2021242
Feb 2021233
Jan 2021228
Dec 2020218
Nov 2020211
Oct 2020233
Sept 2020172
Aug 2020172
Jul 2020155
Jun 2020144
May 2020138
Mar 2020155
Feb 2020138
Jan 2020125
Dec 2019120
Nov 2019118
Oct 2019132
Sept 2019121
Aug 2019126
Jul 2019125
Jun 2019141
May 2019161
Apr 2019185
Mar 2019187
Feb 2019181
Jan 2019174
Dec 2018174
Nov 2018212
Oct 2018233
Sept 2018268
Aug 2018268
Jul 2018268
Jun 2018256
May 2018262
Apr 2018220
Mar 2018214
Feb 2018215
Jan 2018210
Dec 2017214
Nov 2017280
Oct 2017268
Sept 2017236
Aug 2017214
Jul 2017201
Jun 2017192
May 2017196
Apr 2017179
Mar 2017179
Feb 2017173
Jan 2017163
Dec 2016146
Nov 2016149
Oct 2016150
Sept 2016153
Jul 2016179
Jun 2016179
May 2016188
Apr 2016179
Mar 2016179
Feb 2016155
Jan 2016161
Dec 2015196
Nov 2015188
Oct 2015208
Sept 2015214
Aug 2015211
Jul 2015209
Jun 2015211
May 2015186
Apr 2015165
Mar 2015161
Feb 2015161
Jan 2015179

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3378-73-retail-kg.