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Food basket in Hamélé

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,548–3,993

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,235–4,207

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,217 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,548 and 3,993 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,235 and 4,207 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Hamélé: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,217 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,548 and 3,993 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,235 and 4,207 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,944–3,600 3,225 2,626–4,140
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,751–3,835 3,197 2,426–4,917
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,548–3,993 3,112 2,161–4,979
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,258–4,049 3,124 1,477–5,448
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,235–4,207 3,178 1,448–5,946
Cost history (133 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,568
Aug 20263,217
Jul 20263,052
Jun 20263,188
May 20263,353
Apr 20263,439
Mar 20263,743
Feb 20263,590
Jan 20263,657
Dec 20253,313
Nov 20253,789
Oct 20254,520
Sept 20254,571
Aug 20254,984
Jul 20255,539
Jun 20255,757
May 20255,450
Apr 20255,137
Mar 20255,591
Feb 20255,263
Dec 20244,748
Nov 20245,033
Oct 20245,629
Sept 20245,896
Aug 20245,497
Jul 20244,598
Jun 20244,277
May 20244,277
Apr 20243,948
Mar 20243,869
Feb 20243,650
Jan 20243,553
Dec 20233,557
Nov 20233,838
Oct 20233,659
Sept 20233,825
Aug 20233,729
Jul 20233,544
Jun 20233,403
May 20234,386
Apr 20234,366
Mar 20234,114
Feb 20234,134
Jan 20234,196
Dec 20224,330
Nov 20224,727
Oct 20225,287
Sept 20225,383
Aug 20225,567
Jul 20225,375
Jun 20224,975
May 20224,979
Apr 20224,979
Mar 20224,382
Feb 20223,940
Dec 20213,553
Nov 20213,674
Oct 20213,770
Sept 20214,112
Aug 20213,533
Jul 20213,571
Jun 20213,602
May 20213,337
Apr 20213,569
Mar 20213,680
Feb 20213,561
Jan 20213,418
Dec 20203,298
Nov 20203,171
Oct 20203,457
Sept 20202,696
Aug 20202,685
Jul 20202,481
Jun 20202,349
May 20202,277
Mar 20202,481
Feb 20202,277
Jan 20201,997
Dec 20191,944
Nov 20191,886
Oct 20192,108
Sept 20191,969
Aug 20191,994
Jul 20192,089
Jun 20192,273
May 20192,407
Apr 20192,810
Mar 20192,834
Jan 20192,646
Dec 20182,666
Nov 20183,048
Oct 20183,539
Sept 20184,035
Aug 20183,990
Jul 20183,934
Jun 20183,760
May 20183,801
Apr 20183,297
Mar 20183,254
Jan 20183,107
Dec 20173,115
Nov 20173,864
Oct 20173,859
Sept 20173,487
Aug 20173,245
Jul 20173,074
Jun 20172,977
May 20173,034
Apr 20172,816
Mar 20172,769
Jan 20172,492
Dec 20162,245
Nov 20162,261
Oct 20162,335
Sept 20162,446
Jul 20162,801
Jun 20162,807
May 20162,908
Apr 20162,791
Mar 20162,846
Feb 20162,519
Jan 20162,447
Dec 20152,834
Nov 20152,722
Oct 20153,106
Sept 20153,211
Aug 20153,175
Jul 20153,151
Jun 20153,155
May 20152,810
Apr 20152,538
Mar 20152,447
Feb 20152,382

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508