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Rice (local) in Kombissiri

CENTRE-SUD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

324–417

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

325–454

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 324 and 417 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 325 and 454 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Kombissiri: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 324 and 417 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 325 and 454 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 675); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 359–396 374 335–447 430 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 344–405 375 303–494 429 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 324–417 370 273–525 422 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 330–442 371 294–594 437 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 325–454 373 263–675 437 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026424
Aug 2026375
Jul 2026390
Jun 2026362
May 2026384
Apr 2026387
Mar 2026352
Feb 2026356
Jan 2026344
Dec 2025368
Nov 2025370
Oct 2025426
Sept 2025436
Aug 2025445
Jun 2025419
May 2025421
Apr 2025423
Feb 2025414
Jan 2025449
Dec 2024418
Nov 2024355
Oct 2024392
Aug 2024447
Jul 2024428
Jun 2024414
May 2024413
Apr 2024400
Mar 2024397
Feb 2024380
Jan 2024369
Dec 2023375
Nov 2023374
Oct 2023381
Sept 2023380
Aug 2023389
Jul 2023383
Jun 2023379
May 2023383
Apr 2023380
Mar 2023376
Feb 2023364
Jan 2023383
Dec 2022370
Nov 2022375
Oct 2022366
Sept 2022362
Aug 2022386
Jul 2022360
Jun 2022359
May 2022352
Apr 2022357
Mar 2022353
Feb 2022339
Jan 2022332
Dec 2021316
Nov 2021305
Oct 2021297
Sept 2021304
Aug 2021313
Jul 2021320
Jun 2021323
May 2021300
Apr 2021311
Mar 2021301
Feb 2021289
Jan 2021277
Dec 2020287
Nov 2020262
Sept 2020301
Aug 2020295
Jul 2020286
Jun 2020301
May 2020302
Apr 2020294
Mar 2020274
Feb 2020295
Jan 2020288
Dec 2019279
Nov 2019266
Oct 2019268
Sept 2019276
Aug 2019218
Jul 2019275
Jun 2019272
May 2019291
Apr 2019276
Mar 2019307
Feb 2019296
Jan 2019320
Dec 2018339
Nov 2018354

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3380-71-retail-kg.