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Rice (local) in Kompienga

EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

280–391

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

270–432

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 280 and 391 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 270 and 432 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Kompienga: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 280 and 391 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 270 and 432 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 673); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 311–364 334 292–421 451 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 289–375 333 265–474 434 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 280–391 329 243–506 423 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 274–407 329 218–556 435 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 270–432 331 218–673 430 –
Price history (130 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026315
Aug 2026331
Jul 2026336
Jun 2026331
May 2026328
Apr 2026326
Mar 2026339
Feb 2026359
Jan 2026326
Dec 2025344
Nov 2025328
Oct 2025326
Sept 2025393
Aug 2025414
Jul 2025419
Jun 2025408
May 2025332
Mar 2025495
Feb 2025495
Oct 2024401
Sept 2024550
Aug 2024561
Jul 2024566
Jun 2024568
May 2024572
Apr 2024568
Mar 2024519
Jan 2024566
Dec 2023556
Nov 2023476
Oct 2023397
Sept 2023317
Aug 2023400
Jul 2023381
Jun 2023402
May 2023383
Apr 2023415
Mar 2023403
Feb 2023398
Jan 2023366
Nov 2022338
Aug 2022318
Jul 2022319
Jun 2022321
May 2022338
Apr 2022338
Mar 2022338
Feb 2022338
Dec 2021321
Nov 2021338
Sept 2021338
Aug 2021338
Jul 2021282
Jun 2021340
May 2021328
Apr 2021333
Mar 2021271
Feb 2021247
Jan 2021241
Dec 2020294
Nov 2020260
Oct 2020334
Sept 2020348
Aug 2020348
Jul 2020249
Jun 2020279
May 2020285
Apr 2020287
Mar 2020281
Feb 2020282
Jan 2020282
Dec 2019272
Nov 2019280
Oct 2019291
Sept 2019269
Aug 2019263
Jul 2019267
Jun 2019268
May 2019263
Apr 2019263
Mar 2019263
Feb 2019262
Dec 2018278
Nov 2018288
Oct 2018314
Sept 2018313
Aug 2018314
Jul 2018297
Jun 2018276
May 2018281
Apr 2018274
Mar 2018282
Feb 2018282
Jan 2018268
Dec 2017265
Nov 2017265
Oct 2017263
Sept 2017272
Aug 2017281
Jul 2017281
Jun 2017281
May 2017281
Apr 2017276
Mar 2017263
Feb 2017263
Jan 2017264
Dec 2016264
Nov 2016263
Oct 2016263
Sept 2016277
Aug 2016268
Jul 2016268
Jun 2016268
May 2016268
Apr 2016232
Mar 2016268
Feb 2016261
Jan 2016250
Dec 2015259
Nov 2015254
Oct 2015277
Sept 2015295
Aug 2015290
Jul 2015281
Jun 2015281
May 2015264
Apr 2015244
Mar 2015256
Feb 2015265
Jan 2015266

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3381-71-retail-kg.