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Food basket in Kompienga

EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

4,093–7,107

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,637–7,600

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 5,379 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 4,093 and 7,107 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,637 and 7,600 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kompienga: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 5,379 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 4,093 and 7,107 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,637 and 7,600 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,5005,0007,50010,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 13,317); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 4,487–6,190 5,262 4,246–6,994
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 4,177–6,552 5,217 4,022–8,524
Nov 2026
Next month		 4,093–7,107 5,250 3,295–9,501
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,866–7,202 5,048 3,749–10,079
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,637–7,600 5,080 2,162–13,317
Cost history (112 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20265,321
Aug 20265,379
Jul 20265,542
Jun 20265,377
May 20265,525
Apr 20265,341
Mar 20265,903
Feb 20266,635
Jan 20265,371
Dec 20256,045
Nov 20256,395
Oct 20256,791
Sept 20257,681
Aug 20258,469
Apr 20258,488
Mar 20258,676
Feb 20258,564
Dec 20248,966
Nov 20247,961
Aug 20234,700
Jul 20234,879
Jun 20234,285
May 20234,561
Apr 20234,655
Mar 20234,697
Feb 20234,609
Jan 20234,604
Dec 20224,515
Sept 20224,948
Aug 20224,423
Jul 20223,775
Jun 20223,694
May 20223,855
Apr 20224,011
Mar 20223,663
Feb 20223,543
Jan 20223,711
Dec 20213,263
Sept 20212,939
Aug 20213,216
Jul 20213,613
Jun 20213,533
May 20213,745
Apr 20213,761
Mar 20213,500
Feb 20212,972
Jan 20212,740
Dec 20202,551
Sept 20202,853
Aug 20202,942
Jul 20202,765
Jun 20202,559
May 20202,498
Apr 20202,222
Mar 20202,082
Feb 20202,086
Jan 20202,071
Sept 20191,954
Aug 20191,792
Jul 20191,753
Jun 20191,616
May 20191,943
Apr 20192,186
Mar 20192,233
Feb 20192,374
Jan 20192,326
Dec 20182,684
Nov 20182,632
Oct 20182,506
Sept 20182,534
Aug 20183,053
Jul 20182,861
Jun 20183,080
May 20183,359
Apr 20183,070
Mar 20182,997
Feb 20182,952
Jan 20182,698
Dec 20172,550
Oct 20172,334
Sept 20172,743
Aug 20172,978
Jul 20172,866
Jun 20172,732
May 20172,693
Apr 20172,597
Mar 20172,477
Feb 20172,319
Jan 20171,943
Dec 20161,919
Oct 20162,203
Sept 20162,201
Aug 20162,510
Jul 20162,414
Jun 20162,393
May 20162,510
Apr 20162,318
Mar 20162,222
Feb 20162,119
Jan 20162,074
Dec 20152,009
Nov 20152,290
Oct 20152,182
Sept 20152,233
Aug 20152,414
Jul 20152,600
Jun 20152,536
May 20152,495
Apr 20152,397
Mar 20152,438
Feb 20152,073
Jan 20152,178

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508