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Rice (local) in Koupela

CENTRE-EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

286–342

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

267–361

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 286 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 267 and 361 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Koupela: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 286 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 267 and 361 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 305–331 315 285–353 375 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 297–334 316 266–375 368 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 286–342 314 247–381 365 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 277–345 310 247–389 353 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 267–361 307 216–482 351 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026307
Aug 2026314
Jul 2026311
Jun 2026306
May 2026297
Apr 2026296
Mar 2026298
Feb 2026301
Jan 2026323
Dec 2025338
Nov 2025318
Oct 2025335
Sept 2025363
Aug 2025352
Jul 2025360
Jun 2025366
May 2025353
Apr 2025357
Mar 2025351
Feb 2025368
Jan 2025390
Dec 2024365
Nov 2024382
Oct 2024400
Sept 2024406
Aug 2024394
Jul 2024374
Jun 2024374
May 2024374
Apr 2024363
Mar 2024360
Feb 2024344
Jan 2024331
Dec 2023343
Nov 2023350
Oct 2023322
Sept 2023314
Aug 2023309
Jul 2023301
Jun 2023304
May 2023305
Apr 2023296
Mar 2023302
Feb 2023294
Jan 2023303
Dec 2022317
Nov 2022340
Oct 2022346
Sept 2022347
Aug 2022342
Jul 2022334
Jun 2022326
May 2022322
Apr 2022321
Mar 2022309
Feb 2022304
Jan 2022293
Dec 2021290
Nov 2021293
Oct 2021288
Sept 2021294
Aug 2021294
Jul 2021262
Jun 2021279
May 2021286
Apr 2021279
Mar 2021279
Feb 2021256
Jan 2021260
Dec 2020271
Nov 2020276
Oct 2020277
Sept 2020290
Aug 2020271
Jul 2020256
Jun 2020249
May 2020245
Apr 2020247
Mar 2020246
Feb 2020247
Jan 2020256
Dec 2019251
Nov 2019251
Oct 2019244
Sept 2019246
Aug 2019259
Jul 2019263
Jun 2019257
May 2019259
Apr 2019266
Mar 2019258
Feb 2019251
Jan 2019258
Dec 2018255
Nov 2018281
Oct 2018306
Sept 2018313
Aug 2018313
Jul 2018305
Jun 2018310
May 2018296
Apr 2018299
Mar 2018296
Feb 2018288
Jan 2018275
Dec 2017272
Nov 2017281
Oct 2017268
Sept 2017262
Aug 2017259
Jul 2017262
Jun 2017257
May 2017256
Apr 2017256
Mar 2017252
Feb 2017238
Jan 2017235
Dec 2016239
Nov 2016259
Oct 2016275
Sept 2016288
Aug 2016295
Jul 2016297
Jun 2016282
May 2016283
Apr 2016282
Mar 2016282
Feb 2016282
Jan 2016282
Dec 2015282
Nov 2015291
Oct 2015292
Sept 2015289
Aug 2015272
Jul 2015259
Jun 2015266
May 2015264
Apr 2015257
Mar 2015252
Feb 2015245

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3382-71-retail-kg.