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Sorghum (white) in Manga

CENTRE-SUD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 29% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

188–272

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

179–287

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 188 and 272 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 179 and 287 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Manga: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 188 and 272 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 179 and 287 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 202–266 230 191–268 351 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 197–267 230 179–272 345 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 188–272 228 171–289 336 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 182–283 228 166–301 328 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 179–287 231 155–290 330 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026198
Aug 2026230
Jul 2026259
Jun 2026223
May 2026222
Apr 2026239
Mar 2026303
Feb 2026281
Jan 2026285
Dec 2025288
Nov 2025296
Oct 2025298
Sept 2025277
Aug 2025280
Jul 2025336
Jun 2025369
May 2025374
Apr 2025359
Mar 2025343
Feb 2025313
Jan 2025314
Dec 2024284
Nov 2024344
Oct 2024387
Sept 2024388
Aug 2024384
Jul 2024374
Jun 2024321
May 2024361
Apr 2024293
Mar 2024298
Feb 2024311
Jan 2024281
Dec 2023266
Nov 2023276
Oct 2023273
Sept 2023278
Aug 2023280
Jul 2023282
Jun 2023308
May 2023272
Apr 2023304
Mar 2023304
Feb 2023304
Jan 2023294
Dec 2022305
Nov 2022332
Oct 2022348
Sept 2022381
Aug 2022330
Jul 2022326
Jun 2022329
May 2022335
Apr 2022282
Mar 2022268
Feb 2022234
Jan 2022223
Dec 2021225
Nov 2021206
Oct 2021184
Sept 2021194
Aug 2021198
Jul 2021201
Jun 2021208
May 2021203
Apr 2021186
Mar 2021188
Feb 2021182
Jan 2021172
Dec 2020169
Nov 2020182
Oct 2020178
Sept 2020176
Aug 2020165
Jul 2020172
Jun 2020168
May 2020172
Apr 2020166
Mar 2020157
Feb 2020161
Jan 2020157
Dec 2019164
Nov 2019156
Oct 2019153
Sept 2019178
Aug 2019161
Jul 2019139
Jun 2019166
May 2019182
Apr 2019183
Mar 2019184
Feb 2019185
Jan 2019178
Dec 2018196
Nov 2018186
Oct 2018207
Sept 2018206
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018216
Jun 2018205
May 2018195
Apr 2018196
Mar 2018194
Feb 2018189
Jan 2018181
Dec 2017188
Nov 2017188
Oct 2017189
Sept 2017173
Aug 2017199
Jul 2017185
Jun 2017188
May 2017191
Apr 2017188
Mar 2017182
Feb 2017167
Jan 2017176
Dec 2016156
Nov 2016163
Oct 2016188
Sept 2016195
Aug 2016188
Jul 2016188
Jun 2016188
May 2016191
Apr 2016188
Mar 2016178
Feb 2016188
Jan 2016156
Dec 2015163
Nov 2015163
Oct 2015165
Sept 2015165
Aug 2015157
Jul 2015168
Jun 2015153
May 2015158
Apr 2015148
Mar 2015151
Feb 2015151
Jan 2015149

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3383-135-retail-kg.