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Rice (local) in Manga

CENTRE-SUD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

255–333

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

246–358

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 255 and 333 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 246 and 358 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Manga: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 255 and 333 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 246 and 358 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 276–318 294 249–350 357 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 266–325 295 244–367 367 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 255–333 292 226–392 356 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 245–345 290 231–442 344 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 246–358 292 208–476 363 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026295
Aug 2026296
Jul 2026274
Jun 2026265
May 2026268
Apr 2026277
Mar 2026294
Feb 2026314
Jan 2026302
Dec 2025294
Nov 2025296
Oct 2025297
Sept 2025291
Aug 2025334
Jul 2025338
Jun 2025319
May 2025383
Apr 2025382
Mar 2025379
Feb 2025393
Jan 2025399
Dec 2024371
Nov 2024400
Oct 2024420
Sept 2024364
Aug 2024389
Jul 2024382
Jun 2024371
May 2024376
Apr 2024373
Mar 2024360
Feb 2024365
Jan 2024356
Dec 2023334
Nov 2023374
Oct 2023364
Sept 2023384
Aug 2023391
Jul 2023391
Jun 2023382
May 2023340
Apr 2023380
Mar 2023365
Feb 2023367
Jan 2023351
Dec 2022340
Nov 2022331
Oct 2022331
Sept 2022341
Aug 2022343
Jul 2022331
Jun 2022312
May 2022319
Apr 2022337
Mar 2022319
Feb 2022337
Jan 2022382
Dec 2021302
Nov 2021308
Oct 2021295
Sept 2021273
Aug 2021281
Jul 2021288
Jun 2021303
May 2021330
Apr 2021302
Mar 2021281
Feb 2021266
Jan 2021280
Dec 2020279
Nov 2020281
Oct 2020320
Sept 2020286
Aug 2020285
Jul 2020272
Jun 2020247
May 2020263
Apr 2020248
Mar 2020255
Feb 2020255
Jan 2020237
Dec 2019236
Nov 2019245
Oct 2019253
Sept 2019235
Aug 2019240
Jul 2019238
Jun 2019248
May 2019248
Apr 2019253
Mar 2019250
Feb 2019258
Jan 2019268
Dec 2018266
Nov 2018294
Oct 2018300
Sept 2018322
Aug 2018332
Jul 2018334
Jun 2018318
May 2018329
Apr 2018366
Mar 2018351
Feb 2018339
Jan 2018324
Dec 2017301
Nov 2017276
Oct 2017306
Sept 2017288
Aug 2017263
Jul 2017266
Jun 2017264
May 2017264
Apr 2017260
Mar 2017258
Feb 2017253
Jan 2017236
Dec 2016232
Nov 2016262
Oct 2016271
Sept 2016281
Aug 2016302
Jul 2016293
Jun 2016284
May 2016284
Apr 2016292
Mar 2016285
Feb 2016281
Jan 2016266
Dec 2015243
Nov 2015268
Oct 2015290
Sept 2015298
Aug 2015305
Jul 2015301
Jun 2015289
May 2015289
Apr 2015293
Mar 2015264
Feb 2015273
Jan 2015265

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3383-71-retail-kg.