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Food basket in Manga

CENTRE-SUD, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,010–4,465

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,686–4,576

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,682 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,010 and 4,465 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,686 and 4,576 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Manga: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,682 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,010 and 4,465 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,686 and 4,576 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,307–4,055 3,662 3,198–4,392
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,123–4,272 3,629 2,936–4,697
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,010–4,465 3,598 2,837–5,033
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,616–4,520 3,571 2,010–5,245
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,686–4,576 3,568 1,999–5,363
Cost history (141 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,061
Aug 20263,682
Jul 20263,455
Jun 20263,213
May 20263,205
Apr 20263,473
Mar 20263,809
Feb 20263,928
Jan 20263,665
Dec 20253,548
Nov 20253,734
Oct 20253,605
Sept 20253,836
Aug 20253,956
Jul 20254,271
Jun 20254,677
May 20254,889
Apr 20255,287
Mar 20255,611
Feb 20255,270
Jan 20255,014
Dec 20244,930
Nov 20245,430
Oct 20245,705
Sept 20246,081
Aug 20245,907
Jul 20245,555
Jun 20244,603
May 20244,594
Apr 20244,327
Mar 20244,103
Feb 20243,923
Jan 20243,923
Dec 20233,697
Nov 20233,837
Oct 20234,006
Sept 20233,773
Aug 20233,773
Jul 20233,763
Jun 20233,943
May 20233,848
Apr 20234,102
Mar 20233,965
Feb 20234,103
Jan 20234,085
Dec 20224,047
Nov 20224,853
Oct 20225,432
Sept 20225,766
Aug 20225,998
Jul 20225,726
Jun 20225,486
May 20225,042
Apr 20225,160
Mar 20224,948
Feb 20224,168
Jan 20224,130
Dec 20213,929
Nov 20213,710
Oct 20213,331
Sept 20213,625
Aug 20213,340
Jul 20213,154
Jun 20213,349
May 20213,804
Apr 20213,705
Mar 20213,518
Feb 20213,496
Jan 20213,398
Dec 20203,402
Nov 20203,601
Oct 20203,219
Sept 20203,414
Aug 20203,549
Jul 20203,149
Jun 20203,014
May 20202,842
Apr 20202,900
Mar 20202,642
Feb 20202,708
Jan 20202,703
Dec 20192,587
Nov 20192,459
Oct 20192,396
Sept 20192,399
Aug 20192,354
Jul 20192,302
Jun 20192,513
May 20192,687
Apr 20192,548
Mar 20192,508
Feb 20192,659
Jan 20192,849
Dec 20182,997
Nov 20182,803
Oct 20182,859
Sept 20183,137
Aug 20183,249
Jul 20183,473
Jun 20183,268
May 20183,211
Apr 20183,298
Mar 20183,427
Feb 20183,390
Jan 20183,385
Dec 20173,157
Nov 20173,708
Oct 20173,233
Sept 20173,580
Aug 20173,461
Jul 20173,236
Jun 20173,389
May 20173,238
Apr 20173,190
Mar 20173,137
Feb 20173,014
Jan 20173,022
Dec 20162,653
Nov 20163,034
Oct 20163,041
Sept 20163,318
Aug 20163,183
Jul 20163,277
Jun 20163,293
May 20163,137
Apr 20163,064
Mar 20163,044
Feb 20162,975
Jan 20162,965
Dec 20152,813
Nov 20153,026
Oct 20152,841
Sept 20152,986
Aug 20153,034
Jul 20153,151
Jun 20152,887
May 20152,897
Apr 20152,810
Mar 20152,619
Feb 20152,554
Jan 20152,826

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508