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Beans (niebe) in Mogtédo

PLATEAU-CENTRAL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

218–364

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

241–427

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 62 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price fell 2% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 218 and 364 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 241 and 427 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Beans (niebe), Mogtédo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 62 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price fell 2% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 218 and 364 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 241 and 427 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 277–346 311 266–361 426 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 236–359 301 166–372 352 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 218–364 289 139–408 347 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 210–380 301 118–453 375 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 241–427 313 184–605 411 –
Price history (139 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026337
Aug 2026315
Jul 2026300
Jun 2026298
May 2026331
Apr 2026345
Mar 2026329
Feb 2026343
Jan 2026357
Dec 2025321
Nov 2025323
Oct 2025356
Sept 2025390
Aug 2025394
Jul 2025399
Jun 2025448
May 2025476
Apr 2025497
Mar 2025509
Feb 2025535
Jan 2025621
Dec 2024476
Nov 2024366
Oct 2024439
Sept 2024698
Aug 2024605
Jul 2024502
Jun 2024449
May 2024454
Apr 2024400
Mar 2024382
Feb 2024373
Jan 2024328
Dec 2023299
Nov 2023273
Oct 2023281
Sept 2023272
Aug 2023233
Jul 2023215
Jun 2023225
May 2023248
Apr 2023244
Mar 2023245
Feb 2023271
Jan 2023274
Dec 2022268
Nov 2022250
Oct 2022263
Sept 2022376
Aug 2022427
Jul 2022444
Jun 2022454
May 2022472
Apr 2022458
Mar 2022476
Feb 2022474
Jan 2022485
Dec 2021443
Nov 2021401
Oct 2021373
Sept 2021519
Aug 2021467
Jul 2021425
Jun 2021411
May 2021396
Apr 2021373
Mar 2021387
Feb 2021352
Jan 2021303
Dec 2020290
Nov 2020262
Oct 2020261
Sept 2020264
Aug 2020263
Jul 2020258
Jun 2020258
Mar 2020264
Feb 2020267
Jan 2020269
Dec 2019244
Nov 2019213
Oct 2019208
Sept 2019200
Aug 2019183
Jul 2019210
Jun 2019223
May 2019238
Apr 2019267
Mar 2019271
Feb 2019421
Jan 2019267
Dec 2018267
Nov 2018273
Oct 2018263
Sept 2018348
Aug 2018350
Jul 2018350
Jun 2018346
May 2018354
Apr 2018342
Mar 2018338
Feb 2018350
Jan 2018345
Dec 2017298
Nov 2017279
Oct 2017286
Sept 2017350
Aug 2017322
Jul 2017317
Jun 2017302
May 2017302
Apr 2017315
Mar 2017306
Feb 2017302
Jan 2017285
Dec 2016267
Nov 2016273
Oct 2016246
Sept 2016317
Aug 2016323
Jul 2016304
Jun 2016302
May 2016317
Apr 2016311
Mar 2016300
Feb 2016304
Jan 2016300
Dec 2015292
Nov 2015256
Oct 2015238
Sept 2015279
Aug 2015273
Jul 2015250
Jun 2015275
May 2015254
Apr 2015244
Mar 2015238
Feb 2015242
Jan 2015239

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3385-120-retail-kg.