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Sorghum (white) in Mogtédo

PLATEAU-CENTRAL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 29% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

97–163

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

99.6–174

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 97.0 and 163 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 99.6 and 174 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Mogtédo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 97.0 and 163 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 99.6 and 174 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 126–159 145 106–173 201 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 105–160 136 80.6–170 175 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 97–163 131 65.5–190 167 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 96.9–170 136 65.6–209 178 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 99.6–174 140 67.1–214 187 –
Price history (139 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026153
Aug 2026145
Jul 2026133
Jun 2026146
May 2026144
Apr 2026145
Mar 2026144
Feb 2026141
Jan 2026127
Dec 2025127
Nov 2025137
Oct 2025148
Sept 2025166
Aug 2025166
Jul 2025188
Jun 2025208
May 2025210
Apr 2025226
Mar 2025229
Feb 2025226
Jan 2025227
Dec 2024210
Nov 2024200
Oct 2024227
Sept 2024242
Aug 2024249
Jul 2024245
Jun 2024229
May 2024224
Apr 2024211
Mar 2024208
Feb 2024179
Jan 2024179
Dec 2023183
Nov 2023173
Oct 2023173
Sept 2023190
Aug 2023183
Jul 2023191
Jun 2023184
May 2023176
Apr 2023167
Mar 2023175
Feb 2023206
Jan 2023192
Dec 2022166
Nov 2022163
Oct 2022194
Sept 2022240
Aug 2022271
Jul 2022253
Jun 2022276
May 2022254
Apr 2022258
Mar 2022254
Feb 2022215
Jan 2022207
Dec 2021192
Nov 2021164
Oct 2021146
Sept 2021152
Aug 2021153
Jul 2021145
Jun 2021147
May 2021150
Apr 2021145
Mar 2021145
Feb 2021134
Jan 2021119
Dec 2020113
Nov 2020107
Oct 2020109
Sept 2020143
Aug 2020165
Jul 2020141
Jun 2020125
Mar 2020116
Feb 2020116
Jan 2020116
Dec 2019112
Nov 201997
Oct 201993
Sept 2019103
Aug 201999
Jul 2019106
Jun 2019107
May 2019121
Apr 2019129
Mar 2019134
Feb 2019134
Jan 2019131
Dec 2018127
Nov 2018122
Oct 2018123
Sept 2018174
Aug 2018196
Jul 2018193
Jun 2018177
May 2018185
Apr 2018183
Mar 2018179
Feb 2018175
Jan 2018168
Dec 2017158
Nov 2017132
Oct 2017138
Sept 2017142
Aug 2017172
Jul 2017157
Jun 2017149
May 2017157
Apr 2017151
Mar 2017147
Feb 2017136
Jan 2017119
Dec 2016112
Nov 2016110
Oct 2016134
Sept 2016148
Aug 2016147
Jul 2016131
Jun 2016127
May 2016137
Apr 2016133
Mar 2016133
Feb 2016127
Jan 2016119
Dec 2015117
Nov 2015121
Oct 2015113
Sept 2015145
Aug 2015146
Jul 2015143
Jun 2015146
May 2015141
Apr 2015133
Mar 2015127
Feb 2015121
Jan 2015139

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3385-135-retail-kg.