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Millet in Mogtédo

PLATEAU-CENTRAL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

173–265

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

149–281

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 173 and 265 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 149 and 281 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Mogtédo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 173 and 265 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 149 and 281 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 196–239 214 186–264 300 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 187–253 215 172–305 304 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 173–265 213 134–320 291 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 153–261 207 113–355 268 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 149–281 211 95.9–436 277 –
Price history (139 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026227
Aug 2026213
Jul 2026201
Jun 2026217
May 2026213
Apr 2026213
Mar 2026224
Feb 2026238
Jan 2026210
Dec 2025193
Nov 2025211
Oct 2025236
Sept 2025238
Aug 2025245
Jul 2025270
Jun 2025292
May 2025317
Apr 2025320
Mar 2025333
Feb 2025334
Jan 2025317
Dec 2024287
Nov 2024366
Oct 2024385
Sept 2024358
Aug 2024371
Jul 2024340
Jun 2024289
May 2024290
Apr 2024278
Mar 2024290
Feb 2024257
Jan 2024243
Dec 2023242
Nov 2023245
Oct 2023237
Sept 2023247
Aug 2023222
Jul 2023218
Jun 2023225
May 2023254
Apr 2023259
Mar 2023268
Feb 2023288
Jan 2023266
Dec 2022255
Nov 2022324
Oct 2022400
Sept 2022398
Aug 2022381
Jul 2022331
Jun 2022308
May 2022310
Apr 2022313
Mar 2022309
Feb 2022252
Jan 2022259
Dec 2021248
Nov 2021238
Oct 2021218
Sept 2021202
Aug 2021210
Jul 2021201
Jun 2021192
May 2021229
Apr 2021228
Mar 2021228
Feb 2021215
Jan 2021204
Dec 2020195
Nov 2020209
Oct 2020225
Sept 2020221
Aug 2020222
Jul 2020198
Jun 2020194
Mar 2020158
Feb 2020152
Jan 2020157
Dec 2019167
Nov 2019160
Oct 2019144
Sept 2019141
Aug 2019144
Jul 2019144
Jun 2019141
May 2019165
Apr 2019173
Mar 2019165
Feb 2019181
Jan 2019171
Dec 2018169
Nov 2018188
Oct 2018202
Sept 2018210
Aug 2018218
Jul 2018228
Jun 2018228
May 2018246
Apr 2018232
Mar 2018232
Feb 2018217
Jan 2018213
Dec 2017208
Nov 2017217
Oct 2017233
Sept 2017237
Aug 2017241
Jul 2017218
Jun 2017216
May 2017203
Apr 2017201
Mar 2017190
Feb 2017169
Jan 2017158
Dec 2016150
Nov 2016168
Oct 2016181
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016167
Jul 2016169
Jun 2016177
May 2016178
Apr 2016181
Mar 2016173
Feb 2016173
Jan 2016156
Dec 2015158
Nov 2015171
Oct 2015171
Sept 2015165
Aug 2015173
Jul 2015183
Jun 2015183
May 2015188
Apr 2015167
Mar 2015160
Feb 2015152
Jan 2015167

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3385-73-retail-kg.