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Food basket in Mogtédo

PLATEAU-CENTRAL, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,506–3,765

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,253–4,013

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,123 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,506 and 3,765 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,253 and 4,013 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Mogtédo: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,123 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,506 and 3,765 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,253 and 4,013 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,899–3,460 3,123 2,762–3,775
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,739–3,646 3,116 2,530–4,305
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,506–3,765 3,082 2,055–4,512
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,237–3,763 3,018 1,666–5,081
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,253–4,013 3,108 1,620–5,691
Cost history (139 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,331
Aug 20263,123
Jul 20262,952
Jun 20263,140
May 20263,152
Apr 20263,177
Mar 20263,280
Feb 20263,473
Jan 20263,163
Dec 20252,894
Nov 20253,113
Oct 20253,473
Sept 20253,558
Aug 20253,649
Jul 20253,958
Jun 20254,310
May 20254,661
Apr 20254,735
Mar 20254,912
Feb 20254,971
Jan 20254,922
Dec 20244,301
Nov 20245,051
Oct 20245,410
Sept 20245,552
Aug 20245,541
Jul 20244,984
Jun 20244,276
May 20244,297
Apr 20244,056
Mar 20244,168
Feb 20243,755
Jan 20243,506
Dec 20233,442
Nov 20233,431
Oct 20233,350
Sept 20233,454
Aug 20233,083
Jul 20233,003
Jun 20233,105
May 20233,494
Apr 20233,547
Mar 20233,657
Feb 20233,944
Jan 20233,685
Dec 20223,542
Nov 20224,338
Oct 20225,273
Sept 20225,453
Aug 20225,341
Jul 20224,771
Jun 20224,513
May 20224,570
Apr 20224,580
Mar 20224,565
Feb 20223,877
Jan 20223,981
Dec 20213,773
Nov 20213,578
Oct 20213,287
Sept 20213,358
Aug 20213,361
Jul 20213,177
Jun 20213,044
May 20213,461
Apr 20213,407
Mar 20213,433
Feb 20213,214
Jan 20212,993
Dec 20202,862
Nov 20202,980
Oct 20203,170
Sept 20203,127
Aug 20203,137
Jul 20202,840
Jun 20202,792
Mar 20202,371
Feb 20202,305
Jan 20202,368
Dec 20192,443
Nov 20192,303
Oct 20192,102
Sept 20192,052
Aug 20192,057
Jul 20192,106
Jun 20192,093
May 20192,408
Apr 20192,557
Mar 20192,468
Feb 20192,930
Jan 20192,533
Dec 20182,509
Nov 20182,747
Oct 20182,897
Sept 20183,146
Aug 20183,246
Jul 20183,366
Jun 20183,359
May 20183,589
Apr 20183,400
Mar 20183,392
Feb 20183,234
Jan 20183,177
Dec 20173,032
Nov 20173,106
Oct 20173,311
Sept 20173,474
Aug 20173,472
Jul 20173,187
Jun 20173,136
May 20172,980
Apr 20172,979
Mar 20172,831
Feb 20172,572
Jan 20172,409
Dec 20162,281
Nov 20162,507
Oct 20162,615
Sept 20162,671
Aug 20162,585
Jul 20162,575
Jun 20162,668
May 20162,707
Apr 20162,732
Mar 20162,616
Feb 20162,623
Jan 20162,412
Dec 20152,422
Nov 20152,513
Oct 20152,480
Sept 20152,482
Aug 20152,567
Jul 20152,646
Jun 20152,691
May 20152,713
Apr 20152,443
Mar 20152,348
Feb 20152,260
Jan 20152,434

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508