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Sorghum (white) in N'Dorola

HAUTS-BASSINS, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 26% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

146–239

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

139–255

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 146 and 239 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 139 and 255 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), N'Dorola: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 146 and 239 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 139 and 255 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 173–227 203 153–235 286 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 161–233 202 135–243 293 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 146–239 198 107–255 276 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 130–240 192 93–283 262 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 139–255 196 116–324 272 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026191
Aug 2026205
Jul 2026200
Jun 2026210
May 2026205
Apr 2026201
Mar 2026203
Feb 2026184
Jan 2026247
Dec 2025221
Nov 2025205
Oct 2025244
Sept 2025205
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025246
Jun 2025250
May 2025238
Apr 2025246
Mar 2025275
Feb 2025264
Jan 2025264
Dec 2024255
Nov 2024315
Oct 2024319
Sept 2024265
Aug 2024289
Jul 2024274
Jun 2024284
May 2024264
Apr 2024255
Mar 2024234
Feb 2024227
Jan 2024235
Dec 2023221
Nov 2023202
Oct 2023230
Sept 2023241
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023265
Jun 2023281
May 2023288
Apr 2023288
Mar 2023292
Feb 2023266
Jan 2023281
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022288
Oct 2022338
Sept 2022334
Aug 2022319
Jul 2022313
Jun 2022315
May 2022315
Apr 2022295
Feb 2022205
Jan 2022205
Dec 2021192
Nov 2021177
Oct 2021162
Sept 2021152
Aug 2021154
Jul 2021152
Jun 2021151
May 2021143
Apr 2021150
Mar 2021150
Feb 2021150
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020150
Oct 2020150
Sept 2020150
Aug 2020135
Jul 2020125
Jun 2020125
May 2020120
Apr 2020100
Mar 2020100
Feb 2020100
Jan 2020113
Dec 2019100
Nov 2019106
Oct 2019116
Sept 2019125
Aug 2019113
Jul 2019100
Jun 2019125
May 2019125
Apr 2019113
Mar 2019105
Feb 2019125
Jan 2019119
Dec 2018120
Nov 2018163
Oct 2018188
Sept 2018200
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018200
Jun 2018213
May 2018200
Apr 2018175
Mar 2018175
Feb 2018175
Jan 2018166
Dec 2017165
Nov 2017178
Oct 2017173
Sept 2017178
Aug 2017172
Jul 2017168
Jun 2017163
May 2017153
Apr 2017150
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017131
Jan 2017134
Dec 2016130
Nov 2016150
Oct 2016150
Sept 2016146
Aug 2016141
Jul 2016148
Jun 2016134
May 2016143
Apr 2016131
Mar 2016121
Feb 2016128
Jan 2016130
Dec 2015125
Nov 2015188
Oct 2015188
Sept 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015113
Jun 2015166
May 2015141
Apr 2015163
Mar 2015139
Feb 2015139
Jan 2015113

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3387-135-retail-kg.