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Rice (local) in N'Dorola

HAUTS-BASSINS, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

254–338

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

243–360

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 254 and 338 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 243 and 360 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), N'Dorola: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 254 and 338 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 243 and 360 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 499); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 275–328 298 258–364 341 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 265–334 296 233–392 334 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 254–338 293 211–379 332 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 246–343 290 211–419 328 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 243–360 291 199–499 331 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026367
Aug 2026295
Jul 2026325
Jun 2026357
May 2026340
Apr 2026291
Mar 2026308
Feb 2026272
Jan 2026318
Dec 2025320
Nov 2025330
Oct 2025290
Sept 2025319
Aug 2025325
Jul 2025335
Jun 2025318
May 2025347
Apr 2025347
Mar 2025382
Feb 2025350
Jan 2025361
Dec 2024340
Nov 2024361
Oct 2024347
Sept 2024338
Aug 2024345
Jul 2024335
Jun 2024329
May 2024352
Apr 2024344
Mar 2024329
Feb 2024335
Jan 2024334
Dec 2023322
Nov 2023306
Oct 2023317
Sept 2023325
Aug 2023325
Jul 2023328
Jun 2023338
May 2023338
Apr 2023338
Mar 2023325
Feb 2023325
Jan 2023325
Dec 2022320
Nov 2022313
Oct 2022313
Sept 2022329
Aug 2022342
Jul 2022342
Jun 2022342
May 2022339
Apr 2022347
Feb 2022339
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021300
Nov 2021300
Oct 2021298
Sept 2021300
Aug 2021300
Jul 2021306
Jun 2021337
May 2021364
Apr 2021278
Mar 2021278
Feb 2021278
Jan 2021278
Dec 2020278
Nov 2020278
Oct 2020278
Sept 2020278
Aug 2020278
Jul 2020278
Jun 2020278
May 2020278
Apr 2020278
Mar 2020278
Feb 2020278
Jan 2020278
Dec 2019278
Nov 2019278
Oct 2019278
Sept 2019289
Aug 2019285
Jul 2019278
Jun 2019278
May 2019278
Apr 2019278
Mar 2019278
Feb 2019278
Jan 2019274
Dec 2018278
Nov 2018285
Oct 2018306
Sept 2018306
Aug 2018306
Jul 2018294
Jun 2018333
May 2018333
Apr 2018289
Mar 2018278
Feb 2018278
Jan 2018274
Dec 2017278
Nov 2017278
Oct 2017325
Sept 2017319
Aug 2017306
Jul 2017300
Jun 2017302
May 2017302
Apr 2017286
Mar 2017306
Feb 2017302
Jan 2017285
Dec 2016281
Nov 2016306
Oct 2016300
Sept 2016306
Aug 2016306
Jul 2016289
Jun 2016278
May 2016278
Apr 2016278
Mar 2016278
Feb 2016278
Jan 2016278
Dec 2015278
Nov 2015285
Oct 2015313
Sept 2015313
Aug 2015283
Jul 2015299
Jun 2015306
May 2015260
Apr 2015250
Mar 2015225
Feb 2015225
Jan 2015231

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3387-71-retail-kg.