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Food basket in N'Dorola

HAUTS-BASSINS, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,146–5,116

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,030–5,751

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,719 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,146 and 5,116 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,030 and 5,751 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in N'Dorola: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,719 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,146 and 5,116 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,030 and 5,751 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 10,691); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,448–4,569 3,849 3,262–5,297
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,298–4,767 3,813 3,182–5,998
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,146–5,116 3,761 2,645–6,590
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,014–5,357 3,767 2,491–7,855
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,030–5,751 3,940 2,644–10,691
Cost history (139 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,778
Aug 20263,719
Jul 20264,519
Jun 20265,119
May 20265,047
Apr 20265,016
Mar 20264,578
Feb 20264,620
Jan 20264,851
Dec 20254,920
Nov 20255,028
Sept 20253,621
Aug 20254,608
Jul 20254,725
Jun 20254,515
May 20254,951
Apr 20255,182
Mar 20255,647
Feb 20255,625
Jan 20255,619
Dec 20245,577
Nov 20246,121
Oct 20245,910
Sept 20245,826
Aug 20245,853
Jul 20244,703
Jun 20244,952
May 20244,656
Apr 20244,712
Mar 20244,679
Feb 20244,808
Jan 20245,325
Dec 20234,942
Nov 20233,545
Oct 20234,139
Sept 20234,331
Aug 20234,547
Jul 20234,465
Jun 20234,446
May 20234,872
Apr 20234,871
Mar 20235,411
Feb 20234,901
Jan 20235,153
Dec 20225,090
Nov 20225,083
Oct 20225,259
Sept 20225,265
Aug 20225,465
Jul 20225,309
Jun 20225,297
May 20225,123
Apr 20225,110
Feb 20223,978
Jan 20223,923
Dec 20213,847
Nov 20213,485
Oct 20213,333
Sept 20213,224
Aug 20213,096
Jul 20213,078
Jun 20213,186
May 20213,298
Apr 20213,354
Mar 20213,294
Feb 20213,294
Jan 20213,227
Dec 20203,213
Nov 20203,218
Oct 20203,204
Sept 20203,272
Aug 20202,871
Jul 20202,589
Jun 20202,589
May 20202,535
Apr 20202,499
Mar 20202,508
Feb 20202,589
Jan 20202,544
Dec 20192,463
Nov 20192,454
Oct 20192,454
Sept 20192,463
Aug 20192,454
Jul 20192,454
Jun 20192,454
May 20192,454
Apr 20192,226
Mar 20192,178
Feb 20192,622
Jan 20192,454
Dec 20182,709
Nov 20183,142
Oct 20183,719
Sept 20183,957
Aug 20184,011
Jul 20183,984
Jun 20183,966
May 20183,966
Apr 20183,594
Mar 20183,585
Feb 20183,585
Jan 20183,551
Dec 20173,597
Nov 20173,845
Oct 20173,900
Sept 20173,980
Aug 20173,691
Jul 20173,675
Jun 20173,575
May 20173,455
Apr 20173,321
Mar 20172,910
Feb 20173,120
Jan 20173,017
Dec 20163,029
Nov 20163,322
Oct 20163,168
Sept 20163,256
Aug 20163,308
Jul 20163,635
Jun 20163,160
May 20163,162
Apr 20163,090
Mar 20162,743
Feb 20162,868
Jan 20162,868
Dec 20152,823
Nov 20152,702
Oct 20152,918
Sept 20152,763
Aug 20152,634
Jul 20152,802
Jun 20152,634
May 20152,839
Apr 20152,927
Mar 20152,726
Feb 20152,807
Jan 20152,661

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508