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Sorghum (white) in Orodara

HAUTS-BASSINS, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

181–266

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

155–271

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 181 and 266 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 155 and 271 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Orodara: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 181 and 266 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 155 and 271 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 201–248 223 189–266 299 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 190–255 222 174–282 303 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 181–266 216 178–290 286 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 165–265 210 151–312 258 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 155–271 211 105–333 258 –
Price history (117 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026219
Aug 2026225
Jul 2026235
Jun 2026220
May 2026225
Apr 2026225
Mar 2026220
Feb 2026217
Jan 2026220
Dec 2025225
Nov 2025236
Oct 2025261
Sept 2025276
Aug 2025277
Jul 2025287
Jun 2025325
May 2025290
Apr 2025312
Mar 2025291
Feb 2025291
Jan 2025262
Dec 2024235
Nov 2024282
Oct 2024333
Sept 2024299
Aug 2024306
Jul 2024292
Jun 2024281
May 2024294
Apr 2024232
Mar 2024207
Feb 2024172
Jan 2024194
Dec 2023192
Nov 2023201
Oct 2023222
Sept 2023209
Aug 2023213
Jul 2023206
Jun 2023229
May 2023250
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023226
Feb 2023226
Jan 2023212
Dec 2022259
Nov 2022353
Oct 2022344
Sept 2022319
Aug 2022306
Jul 2022333
Jun 2022333
May 2022333
Apr 2022319
Mar 2022237
Feb 2022191
Jan 2022197
Dec 2021198
Nov 2021194
Oct 2021192
Sept 2021195
Aug 2021199
Jul 2021194
Jun 2021194
May 2021194
Apr 2021181
Mar 2021167
Feb 2021162
Jan 2021132
Dec 2020140
Nov 2020132
Oct 2020145
Sept 2020149
Aug 2020147
Jul 2020145
Jun 2020141
May 2020141
Apr 2020147
Mar 2020125
Feb 2020110
Jan 2020111
Dec 2019108
Nov 2019111
Oct 2019111
Sept 2019112
Aug 2019114
Jul 2019111
Jun 2019124
May 2019132
Apr 2019132
Mar 2019131
Feb 2019116
Jan 2019129
Dec 2018122
Nov 2018159
Oct 2018185
Sept 2018181
Aug 2018206
Jul 2018206
Jun 2018206
May 2018208
Apr 2018208
Mar 2018206
Feb 2018191
Jan 2018160
Dec 2017156
Nov 2017181
Oct 2017171
Sept 2017178
Aug 2017161
Jul 2017153
Jun 2017145
May 2017145
Apr 2017145
Mar 2017132
Feb 2017125
Jan 2017127

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3388-135-retail-kg.