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Rice (local) in Orodara

HAUTS-BASSINS, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 18% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

339–426

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

324–444

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 339 and 426 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 324 and 444 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Orodara: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 339 and 426 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 324 and 444 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 371–423 388 359–466 474 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 360–430 389 348–484 477 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 339–426 383 305–453 446 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 335–437 382 300–482 451 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 324–444 379 280–492 436 –
Price history (117 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026398
Aug 2026385
Jul 2026410
Jun 2026397
May 2026380
Apr 2026409
Mar 2026427
Feb 2026434
Jan 2026402
Dec 2025408
Nov 2025403
Oct 2025414
Sept 2025419
Aug 2025450
Jul 2025453
Jun 2025474
May 2025440
Apr 2025410
Mar 2025409
Feb 2025437
Jan 2025382
Dec 2024439
Nov 2024426
Oct 2024553
Sept 2024500
Aug 2024500
Jul 2024500
Jun 2024481
May 2024475
Apr 2024425
Mar 2024434
Feb 2024447
Jan 2024412
Dec 2023421
Nov 2023442
Oct 2023450
Sept 2023440
Aug 2023456
Jul 2023463
Jun 2023451
May 2023468
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023438
Feb 2023388
Jan 2023412
Dec 2022443
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022440
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022430
Jun 2022450
May 2022416
Apr 2022410
Mar 2022383
Feb 2022388
Jan 2022393
Dec 2021390
Nov 2021359
Oct 2021340
Sept 2021411
Aug 2021395
Jul 2021368
Jun 2021367
May 2021362
Apr 2021345
Mar 2021349
Feb 2021338
Jan 2021311
Dec 2020345
Nov 2020328
Oct 2020365
Sept 2020344
Aug 2020350
Jul 2020350
Jun 2020350
May 2020359
Apr 2020362
Mar 2020349
Feb 2020351
Jan 2020350
Dec 2019355
Nov 2019344
Oct 2019350
Sept 2019347
Aug 2019344
Jul 2019327
Jun 2019351
May 2019325
Apr 2019325
Mar 2019330
Feb 2019350
Jan 2019325
Dec 2018315
Nov 2018325
Oct 2018381
Sept 2018354
Aug 2018368
Jul 2018362
Jun 2018350
May 2018350
Apr 2018375
Mar 2018350
Feb 2018331
Jan 2018331
Dec 2017340
Nov 2017342
Oct 2017375
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017363
Jul 2017350
Jun 2017350
May 2017350
Apr 2017350
Mar 2017344
Feb 2017325
Jan 2017325

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3388-71-retail-kg.