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Food basket in Orodara

HAUTS-BASSINS, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,627–5,654

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,155–5,974

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,582 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,627 and 5,654 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,155 and 5,974 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Orodara: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,582 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,627 and 5,654 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,155 and 5,974 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,5005,0007,50010,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 4,115–5,113 4,580 3,775–5,430
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,799–5,366 4,495 3,338–6,145
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,627–5,654 4,457 3,138–6,567
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,514–5,944 4,415 2,792–7,393
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,155–5,974 4,471 2,175–8,408
Cost history (117 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,617
Aug 20264,582
Jul 20264,018
Jun 20264,528
May 20264,500
Apr 20264,486
Mar 20264,594
Feb 20264,562
Jan 20264,769
Dec 20254,748
Nov 20255,016
Oct 20255,320
Sept 20255,309
Aug 20255,627
Jul 20255,710
Jun 20256,710
May 20255,957
Apr 20255,962
Mar 20255,617
Feb 20255,549
Jan 20255,441
Dec 20245,993
Nov 20246,518
Oct 20246,923
Sept 20246,758
Aug 20246,192
Jul 20245,467
Jun 20244,981
May 20245,084
Apr 20245,113
Mar 20244,958
Feb 20244,277
Jan 20244,340
Dec 20234,549
Nov 20234,461
Oct 20234,827
Sept 20234,522
Aug 20235,233
Jul 20234,662
Jun 20235,077
May 20235,440
Apr 20235,377
Mar 20235,565
Feb 20235,213
Jan 20235,555
Dec 20226,160
Nov 20226,176
Oct 20226,197
Sept 20226,331
Aug 20225,710
Jul 20225,527
Jun 20225,968
May 20225,990
Apr 20225,858
Mar 20224,829
Feb 20224,236
Jan 20224,133
Dec 20214,040
Nov 20213,710
Oct 20213,868
Sept 20213,919
Aug 20213,781
Jul 20214,177
Jun 20214,123
May 20213,965
Apr 20213,952
Mar 20213,869
Feb 20213,571
Jan 20213,609
Dec 20203,599
Nov 20203,490
Oct 20203,692
Sept 20203,877
Aug 20203,670
Jul 20203,479
Jun 20203,389
May 20203,505
Apr 20203,390
Mar 20203,205
Feb 20203,016
Jan 20202,936
Dec 20192,914
Nov 20192,542
Oct 20192,650
Sept 20192,977
Aug 20192,770
Jul 20192,877
Jun 20192,965
May 20193,441
Apr 20193,359
Mar 20192,753
Feb 20192,822
Jan 20193,010
Dec 20183,186
Nov 20183,212
Oct 20183,423
Sept 20183,686
Aug 20184,428
Jul 20184,383
Jun 20184,333
May 20184,069
Apr 20184,009
Mar 20184,069
Feb 20183,841
Jan 20183,573
Dec 20173,750
Nov 20174,579
Oct 20174,079
Sept 20173,890
Aug 20173,510
Jul 20173,451
Jun 20173,402
May 20173,451
Apr 20173,315
Mar 20172,992
Feb 20172,750
Jan 20173,041

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508