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Maize (white) in Ouargaye

CENTRE-EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 42% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

88.6–149

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

92.1–169

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 42% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 17% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 88.6 and 149 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 92.1 and 169 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Ouargaye: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 42% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 17% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 88.6 and 149 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 92.1 and 169 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 112–151 126 98.3–159 227 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 96–151 121 76.8–183 194 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 88.6–149 115 61.4–185 183 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 89.4–156 122 59.2–191 200 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 92.1–169 123 66.4–246 209 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026120
Aug 2026121
Jul 2026153
Jun 2026149
May 2026145
Apr 2026154
Mar 2026152
Feb 2026154
Jan 2026140
Dec 2025128
Nov 2025133
Oct 2025160
Sept 2025178
Aug 2025181
Jul 2025231
Jun 2025224
May 2025229
Apr 2025234
Mar 2025223
Feb 2025210
Jan 2025200
Dec 2024191
Nov 2024164
Oct 2024215
Sept 2024211
Aug 2024214
Jul 2024227
Jun 2024223
May 2024234
Apr 2024224
Mar 2024218
Feb 2024205
Jan 2024214
Dec 2023216
Nov 2023189
Oct 2023179
Sept 2023214
Aug 2023233
Jul 2023234
Jun 2023221
May 2023216
Apr 2023204
Mar 2023212
Feb 2023210
Jan 2023209
Dec 2022188
Nov 2022162
Oct 2022170
Sept 2022212
Aug 2022236
Jul 2022241
Jun 2022231
May 2022225
Apr 2022237
Mar 2022212
Feb 2022197
Jan 2022195
Dec 2021169
Nov 2021141
Oct 2021151
Sept 2021181
Aug 2021173
Jul 2021176
Jun 2021163
May 2021153
Apr 2021146
Mar 2021143
Feb 2021133
Jan 2021122
Dec 2020120
Nov 2020113
Oct 2020120
Sept 2020126
Aug 2020121
Jul 2020116
Jun 2020105
May 2020106
Apr 2020100
Mar 202088
Feb 202078
Jan 202089
Dec 201988
Nov 201982
Oct 201975
Sept 201990
Aug 201973
Jul 201999
Jun 201996
May 2019111
Apr 2019115
Mar 2019115
Feb 2019119
Jan 2019117
Dec 2018114
Nov 2018108
Oct 2018112
Sept 2018143
Aug 2018167
Jul 2018160
Jun 2018155
May 2018154
Apr 2018155
Mar 2018153
Feb 2018139
Jan 2018133
Dec 2017131
Nov 2017114
Oct 2017117
Sept 2017133
Aug 2017126
Jul 2017121
Jun 2017121
May 2017121
Apr 2017121
Mar 2017118
Feb 2017108
Jan 201797
Dec 201697
Nov 2016100
Oct 2016103
Sept 2016140
Aug 2016146
Jul 2016149
Jun 2016149
May 2016151
Apr 2016138
Mar 2016136
Feb 2016125
Jan 2016121
Dec 2015123
Nov 2015131
Oct 2015134
Sept 2015134
Aug 2015141
Jul 2015144
Jun 2015141
May 2015123
Apr 2015109
Mar 2015107
Feb 2015103
Jan 2015119

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3389-67-retail-kg.