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Rice (local) in Ouargaye

CENTRE-EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

271–338

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

252–356

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 271 and 338 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 252 and 356 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Ouargaye: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 271 and 338 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 252 and 356 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 468); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 289–323 308 278–335 346 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 273–327 307 261–354 334 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 271–338 304 267–367 347 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 261–349 302 246–418 336 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 252–356 302 201–468 333 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026306
Aug 2026308
Jul 2026312
Jun 2026310
May 2026313
Apr 2026318
Mar 2026302
Feb 2026327
Jan 2026309
Dec 2025300
Nov 2025300
Oct 2025322
Sept 2025341
Aug 2025308
Jul 2025310
Jun 2025311
May 2025341
Apr 2025340
Mar 2025333
Feb 2025333
Jan 2025352
Dec 2024323
Nov 2024336
Oct 2024343
Sept 2024353
Aug 2024349
Jul 2024302
Jun 2024302
May 2024306
Apr 2024316
Mar 2024301
Feb 2024291
Jan 2024292
Dec 2023297
Nov 2023283
Oct 2023275
Sept 2023301
Aug 2023308
Jul 2023308
Jun 2023306
May 2023305
Apr 2023298
Mar 2023300
Feb 2023300
Jan 2023309
Dec 2022323
Nov 2022332
Oct 2022332
Sept 2022336
Aug 2022331
Jul 2022323
Jun 2022306
May 2022306
Apr 2022322
Mar 2022302
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022292
Dec 2021278
Nov 2021273
Oct 2021218
Sept 2021257
Aug 2021267
Jul 2021261
Jun 2021264
May 2021268
Apr 2021240
Mar 2021243
Feb 2021260
Jan 2021258
Dec 2020281
Nov 2020276
Oct 2020255
Sept 2020266
Aug 2020246
Jul 2020230
Jun 2020216
May 2020220
Apr 2020217
Mar 2020216
Feb 2020215
Jan 2020215
Dec 2019220
Nov 2019223
Oct 2019213
Sept 2019209
Aug 2019197
Jul 2019205
Jun 2019204
May 2019212
Apr 2019219
Mar 2019218
Feb 2019216
Jan 2019215
Dec 2018229
Nov 2018275
Oct 2018275
Sept 2018283
Aug 2018299
Jul 2018307
Jun 2018294
May 2018285
Apr 2018284
Mar 2018276
Feb 2018276
Jan 2018267
Dec 2017257
Nov 2017269
Oct 2017239
Sept 2017224
Aug 2017231
Jul 2017225
Jun 2017229
May 2017244
Apr 2017236
Mar 2017242
Feb 2017230
Jan 2017220
Dec 2016234
Nov 2016261
Oct 2016264
Sept 2016268
Aug 2016265
Jul 2016271
Jun 2016267
May 2016271
Apr 2016272
Mar 2016274
Feb 2016215
Jan 2016262
Dec 2015265
Nov 2015277
Oct 2015277
Sept 2015280
Aug 2015274
Jul 2015277
Jun 2015276
May 2015273
Apr 2015262
Mar 2015262
Feb 2015263
Jan 2015240

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3389-71-retail-kg.