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Millet in Ouargaye

CENTRE-EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

258–408

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

208–411

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 258 and 408 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 208 and 411 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Ouargaye: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 258 and 408 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 208 and 411 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 569); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 280–354 319 256–397 363 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 261–383 320 230–400 361 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 258–408 312 255–456 374 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 238–413 310 180–500 353 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 208–411 308 112–569 338 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026295
Aug 2026316
Jul 2026333
Jun 2026337
May 2026369
Apr 2026355
Mar 2026351
Feb 2026334
Jan 2026323
Dec 2025310
Nov 2025315
Oct 2025323
Sept 2025323
Aug 2025325
Jul 2025344
Jun 2025374
May 2025382
Apr 2025418
Mar 2025403
Feb 2025403
Jan 2025321
Dec 2024347
Nov 2024349
Oct 2024344
Sept 2024313
Aug 2024315
Jul 2024314
Jun 2024294
May 2024252
Apr 2024262
Mar 2024236
Feb 2024224
Jan 2024226
Dec 2023216
Nov 2023204
Oct 2023206
Sept 2023230
Aug 2023255
Jul 2023245
Jun 2023250
May 2023234
Apr 2023235
Mar 2023241
Feb 2023243
Jan 2023247
Dec 2022262
Nov 2022409
Oct 2022411
Sept 2022388
Aug 2022394
Jul 2022376
Jun 2022314
May 2022305
Apr 2022322
Mar 2022308
Feb 2022261
Jan 2022249
Dec 2021261
Nov 2021257
Oct 2021252
Sept 2021246
Aug 2021246
Jul 2021232
Jun 2021236
May 2021243
Apr 2021240
Mar 2021233
Feb 2021203
Jan 2021197
Dec 2020231
Nov 2020205
Oct 2020195
Sept 2020199
Aug 2020184
Jul 2020159
Jun 2020153
May 2020148
Apr 2020142
Mar 2020127
Feb 2020123
Jan 2020140
Dec 2019143
Nov 2019142
Oct 2019130
Sept 2019124
Aug 2019121
Jul 2019126
Jun 2019133
May 2019145
Apr 2019148
Mar 2019147
Feb 2019153
Jan 2019157
Dec 2018188
Nov 2018243
Oct 2018220
Sept 2018221
Aug 2018232
Jul 2018232
Jun 2018248
May 2018253
Apr 2018245
Mar 2018239
Feb 2018218
Jan 2018216
Dec 2017205
Nov 2017189
Oct 2017179
Sept 2017192
Aug 2017187
Jul 2017187
Jun 2017187
May 2017181
Apr 2017183
Mar 2017173
Feb 2017152
Jan 2017152
Dec 2016154
Nov 2016178
Oct 2016163
Sept 2016177
Aug 2016178
Jul 2016189
Jun 2016187
May 2016192
Apr 2016193
Mar 2016180
Feb 2016163
Jan 2016163
Dec 2015154
Nov 2015146
Oct 2015141
Sept 2015145
Aug 2015170
Jul 2015177
Jun 2015169
May 2015170
Apr 2015160
Mar 2015154
Feb 2015151
Jan 2015143

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3389-73-retail-kg.