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Food basket in Ouargaye

CENTRE-EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,577–5,524

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,957–5,602

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,370 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,577 and 5,524 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,957 and 5,602 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Ouargaye: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,370 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,577 and 5,524 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,957 and 5,602 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,959–4,890 4,423 3,659–5,394
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,609–5,173 4,419 3,276–5,488
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,577–5,524 4,352 3,411–6,154
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,231–5,629 4,253 2,501–6,606
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,957–5,602 4,259 1,955–7,271
Cost history (141 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,138
Aug 20264,370
Jul 20264,622
Jun 20264,676
May 20265,107
Apr 20264,917
Mar 20264,804
Feb 20264,595
Jan 20264,448
Dec 20254,269
Nov 20254,365
Oct 20254,531
Sept 20254,565
Aug 20254,723
Jul 20255,105
Jun 20255,440
May 20255,444
Apr 20256,029
Mar 20255,792
Feb 20255,785
Jan 20254,898
Dec 20244,889
Nov 20244,802
Oct 20245,194
Sept 20245,196
Aug 20244,723
Jul 20244,636
Jun 20244,390
May 20243,893
Apr 20243,839
Mar 20243,500
Feb 20243,358
Jan 20243,304
Dec 20233,112
Nov 20232,936
Oct 20232,902
Sept 20233,345
Aug 20233,683
Jul 20233,545
Jun 20233,589
May 20233,389
Apr 20233,333
Mar 20233,419
Feb 20233,449
Jan 20233,481
Dec 20223,621
Nov 20225,381
Oct 20225,504
Sept 20225,839
Aug 20225,848
Jul 20225,603
Jun 20224,783
May 20224,668
Apr 20224,856
Mar 20224,675
Feb 20224,138
Jan 20223,967
Dec 20213,996
Nov 20213,885
Oct 20213,827
Sept 20213,919
Aug 20213,879
Jul 20213,657
Jun 20213,610
May 20213,620
Apr 20213,568
Mar 20213,498
Feb 20213,077
Jan 20212,944
Dec 20203,362
Nov 20203,052
Oct 20202,966
Sept 20203,050
Aug 20202,878
Jul 20202,462
Jun 20202,371
May 20202,341
Apr 20202,192
Mar 20202,024
Feb 20202,027
Jan 20202,231
Dec 20192,098
Nov 20192,089
Oct 20192,033
Sept 20191,960
Aug 20191,879
Jul 20191,975
Jun 20192,042
May 20192,213
Apr 20192,280
Mar 20192,228
Feb 20192,327
Jan 20192,318
Dec 20182,643
Nov 20183,312
Oct 20183,108
Sept 20183,352
Aug 20183,508
Jul 20183,517
Jun 20183,662
May 20183,711
Apr 20183,588
Mar 20183,532
Feb 20183,262
Jan 20183,182
Dec 20172,944
Nov 20172,781
Oct 20172,710
Sept 20172,992
Aug 20172,888
Jul 20172,842
Jun 20172,831
May 20172,752
Apr 20172,729
Mar 20172,641
Feb 20172,369
Jan 20172,321
Dec 20162,257
Nov 20162,575
Oct 20162,464
Sept 20162,741
Aug 20162,818
Jul 20162,925
Jun 20162,876
May 20162,963
Apr 20162,959
Mar 20162,788
Feb 20162,572
Jan 20162,546
Dec 20152,242
Nov 20152,173
Oct 20152,218
Sept 20152,296
Aug 20152,598
Jul 20152,686
Jun 20152,572
May 20152,558
Apr 20152,406
Mar 20152,293
Feb 20152,278
Jan 20152,110

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508