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Food basket in Po

CENTRE-SUD, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,422–5,472

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,854–5,638

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,433 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,422 and 5,472 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,854 and 5,638 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Po: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,433 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,422 and 5,472 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,854 and 5,638 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,5005,0007,50010,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,996–4,924 4,414 3,609–5,395
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,758–5,243 4,416 3,357–6,145
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,422–5,472 4,243 2,795–6,697
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,985–5,510 4,146 2,044–8,008
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,854–5,638 4,095 1,943–8,284
Cost history (133 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,326
Aug 20264,433
Jul 20264,404
May 20264,296
Apr 20264,103
Mar 20264,301
Feb 20264,055
Jan 20264,504
Dec 20254,978
Nov 20253,752
Oct 20254,304
Sept 20255,612
Aug 20255,603
Jul 20255,963
Jun 20256,053
May 20255,950
Apr 20255,885
Mar 20255,807
Feb 20255,662
Jan 20255,635
Dec 20245,513
Nov 20247,004
Oct 20246,677
Sept 20246,743
Aug 20245,978
Jul 20244,744
May 20244,376
Apr 20244,486
Mar 20244,220
Feb 20244,027
Jan 20243,988
Dec 20234,498
Nov 20234,663
Oct 20234,619
Sept 20234,927
Aug 20234,780
Jul 20234,602
Jun 20234,501
May 20234,646
Apr 20234,771
Mar 20234,541
Feb 20234,433
Jan 20234,349
Dec 20224,794
Nov 20225,990
Oct 20226,498
Sept 20226,622
Aug 20226,175
Jul 20225,930
May 20225,510
Apr 20225,551
Mar 20224,711
Feb 20224,445
Jan 20224,294
Dec 20214,277
Nov 20214,321
Oct 20214,488
Sept 20214,634
Aug 20214,462
Jul 20214,564
Jun 20214,223
May 20214,543
Apr 20214,408
Mar 20213,975
Feb 20213,901
Jan 20213,696
Dec 20203,919
Nov 20203,841
Oct 20203,962
Sept 20203,699
Aug 20203,506
Jun 20203,095
May 20203,223
Apr 20202,728
Mar 20202,695
Feb 20202,372
Jan 20202,818
Dec 20192,365
Nov 20192,354
Oct 20192,650
Sept 20192,942
Aug 20192,872
Jun 20193,329
May 20193,235
Apr 20192,957
Mar 20193,042
Feb 20193,142
Jan 20193,048
Dec 20183,053
Nov 20183,323
Oct 20183,578
Sept 20183,838
Aug 20184,015
Jul 20183,974
Jun 20183,927
May 20183,922
Apr 20183,884
Mar 20183,827
Feb 20183,692
Jan 20183,317
Dec 20173,567
Nov 20174,278
Oct 20174,151
Sept 20173,842
Aug 20173,706
Jun 20173,686
May 20173,626
Apr 20173,386
Mar 20173,170
Feb 20173,055
Jan 20172,857
Dec 20162,820
Nov 20163,270
Oct 20163,025
Sept 20163,115
Aug 20163,115
Jul 20163,223
Jun 20163,059
May 20163,083
Apr 20162,942
Mar 20162,818
Feb 20162,926
Jan 20162,824
Dec 20152,693
Nov 20153,222
Oct 20153,516
Sept 20153,598
Aug 20153,571
Jun 20153,387
May 20153,227
Apr 20152,815
Mar 20152,818
Feb 20152,809

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508