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Sorghum (white) in Sapouy

CENTRE-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 28% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

107–171

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

105–180

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 107 and 171 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 105 and 180 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Sapouy: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 107 and 171 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 105 and 180 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 135–163 150 122–171 215 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 121–166 146 99.5–181 204 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 107–171 138 85.7–195 182 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 103–176 139 72.4–214 185 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 105–180 139 77.6–221 189 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026156
Aug 2026151
Jul 2026141
Jun 2026145
May 2026144
Apr 2026149
Mar 2026150
Feb 2026138
Jan 2026132
Dec 2025132
Nov 2025140
Oct 2025143
Sept 2025167
Aug 2025184
Jul 2025208
Jun 2025216
May 2025213
Apr 2025218
Mar 2025229
Feb 2025230
Jan 2025210
Dec 2024201
Nov 2024197
Oct 2024237
Sept 2024253
Aug 2024243
Jul 2024247
Jun 2024237
May 2024230
Apr 2024218
Mar 2024202
Feb 2024180
Jan 2024177
Dec 2023180
Nov 2023167
Oct 2023184
Sept 2023197
Aug 2023199
Jul 2023195
Jun 2023188
May 2023192
Apr 2023188
Mar 2023194
Feb 2023203
Jan 2023193
Dec 2022189
Nov 2022183
Oct 2022228
Sept 2022245
Aug 2022285
Jul 2022286
Jun 2022289
May 2022271
Apr 2022266
Mar 2022239
Feb 2022209
Jan 2022195
Dec 2021184
Nov 2021173
Oct 2021177
Sept 2021179
Aug 2021175
Jul 2021163
Jun 2021171
May 2021172
Apr 2021154
Mar 2021152
Feb 2021185
Jan 2021135
Dec 2020128
Nov 2020124
Oct 2020147
Sept 2020136
Aug 2020129
Jul 2020127
Jun 2020116
May 2020114
Apr 2020110
Mar 2020106
Feb 2020103
Jan 2020103
Dec 2019103
Nov 2019107
Oct 2019114
Sept 2019109
Aug 201999
Jul 2019107
Jun 2019112
May 2019118
Apr 2019114
Mar 2019118
Feb 2019118
Jan 2019118
Dec 2018119
Nov 2018134
Oct 2018155
Sept 2018172
Aug 2018181
Jul 2018175
Jun 2018166
May 2018171
Apr 2018168
Mar 2018164
Feb 2018166
Jan 2018149
Dec 2017137
Nov 2017126
Oct 2017137
Sept 2017161
Aug 2017164
Jul 2017154
Jun 2017157
May 2017157
Apr 2017156
Mar 2017147
Feb 2017139
Jan 2017126
Dec 2016124
Nov 2016117
Oct 2016132
Sept 2016139
Aug 2016138
Jul 2016156
Jun 2016147
May 2016146
Apr 2016144
Mar 2016134
Feb 2016119
Jan 2016116
Dec 2015106
Nov 2015111
Oct 2015121
Sept 2015137
Aug 2015139
Jul 2015148
Jun 2015144
May 2015138
Apr 2015135
Mar 2015125
Feb 2015124
Jan 2015128

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3392-135-retail-kg.