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Food basket in Sapouy

CENTRE-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,386–3,588

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,004–3,639

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 2,906 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,386 and 3,588 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,004 and 3,639 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Sapouy: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 2,906 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,386 and 3,588 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,004 and 3,639 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,632–3,223 2,912 2,370–3,527
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,489–3,385 2,906 2,228–3,764
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,386–3,588 2,869 2,051–4,345
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,055–3,562 2,792 1,543–4,469
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,004–3,639 2,781 1,486–5,331
Cost history (141 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,352
Aug 20262,906
Jul 20262,618
Jun 20262,650
May 20262,701
Apr 20262,773
Mar 20262,846
Feb 20262,779
Jan 20262,644
Dec 20252,669
Nov 20253,086
Oct 20253,055
Sept 20253,254
Aug 20253,480
Jul 20253,080
Jun 20253,892
May 20253,922
Apr 20254,246
Mar 20254,546
Feb 20254,222
Jan 20254,035
Dec 20243,562
Nov 20244,111
Oct 20245,021
Sept 20245,164
Aug 20245,224
Jul 20244,297
Jun 20243,875
May 20243,729
Apr 20243,512
Mar 20243,199
Feb 20243,059
Jan 20243,080
Dec 20233,179
Nov 20233,328
Oct 20233,224
Sept 20233,304
Aug 20233,032
Jul 20232,998
Jun 20233,103
May 20233,275
Apr 20233,315
Mar 20233,462
Feb 20233,505
Jan 20233,378
Dec 20223,210
Nov 20224,085
Oct 20224,604
Sept 20225,298
Aug 20225,483
Jul 20225,107
Jun 20224,858
May 20224,851
Apr 20224,721
Mar 20224,098
Feb 20223,803
Jan 20223,617
Dec 20213,518
Nov 20213,662
Oct 20213,313
Sept 20213,602
Aug 20213,297
Jul 20213,148
Jun 20213,155
May 20213,095
Apr 20212,944
Mar 20212,890
Feb 20213,512
Jan 20212,833
Dec 20202,832
Nov 20203,350
Oct 20203,512
Sept 20203,047
Aug 20202,796
Jul 20202,786
Jun 20202,851
May 20202,745
Apr 20202,736
Mar 20202,612
Feb 20202,546
Jan 20202,361
Dec 20192,372
Nov 20192,372
Oct 20192,320
Sept 20192,140
Aug 20192,272
Jul 20192,248
Jun 20192,276
May 20192,498
Apr 20192,455
Mar 20192,651
Feb 20192,692
Jan 20192,561
Dec 20182,681
Nov 20182,737
Oct 20182,780
Sept 20183,040
Aug 20183,102
Jul 20183,004
Jun 20183,345
May 20183,079
Apr 20182,969
Mar 20183,152
Feb 20183,165
Jan 20183,146
Dec 20173,011
Nov 20173,244
Oct 20172,947
Sept 20172,660
Aug 20173,077
Jul 20173,027
Jun 20172,863
May 20172,823
Apr 20172,789
Mar 20172,621
Feb 20172,441
Jan 20172,209
Dec 20162,366
Nov 20162,531
Oct 20162,453
Sept 20162,521
Aug 20162,545
Jul 20162,631
Jun 20162,521
May 20162,390
Apr 20162,293
Mar 20162,276
Feb 20162,194
Jan 20162,186
Dec 20152,295
Nov 20152,555
Oct 20152,233
Sept 20152,456
Aug 20152,431
Jul 20152,700
Jun 20152,459
May 20152,577
Apr 20152,432
Mar 20152,328
Feb 20152,581
Jan 20152,420

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508