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Sorghum (white) in Sebba

SAHEL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 36% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

290–491

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

277–524

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 290 and 491 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 277 and 524 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Sebba: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 290 and 491 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 277 and 524 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 382–488 430 332–504 717 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 340–503 422 278–546 659 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 290–491 386 231–566 547 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 274–502 377 202–588 542 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 277–524 388 177–638 572 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026435
Aug 2026435
Jul 2026435
Jun 2026486
May 2026462
Apr 2026515
Mar 2026483
Feb 2026411
Jan 2026362
Dec 2025357
Nov 2025357
Oct 2025580
Aug 2025735
Jul 2025693
Jun 2025580
May 2025580
Apr 2025507
Mar 2025500
Feb 2025479
Jan 2025479
Dec 2024445
Nov 2024411
Oct 2024462
Sept 2024565
Aug 2024548
Jul 2024548
Jun 2024548
May 2024565
Apr 2024548
Mar 2024479
Feb 2024479
Jan 2024479
Dec 2023479
Nov 2023582
Oct 2023616
Sept 2023616
Aug 2023616
Jul 2023616
Jun 2023599
May 2023589
Apr 2023599
Mar 2023548
Feb 2023548
Jan 2023534
Dec 2022497
Nov 2022479
Oct 2022479
Sept 2022479
Aug 2022493
Jul 2022479
Jun 2022342
May 2022342
Apr 2022274
Mar 2022248
Feb 2022240
Jan 2022205
Dec 2021205
Nov 2021185
Oct 2021205
Sept 2021205
Aug 2021205
Jul 2021205
Jun 2021194
May 2021171
Apr 2021171
Mar 2021171
Feb 2021163
Jan 2021137
Dec 2020137
Nov 2020146
Oct 2020205
Sept 2020197
Aug 2020171
Jul 2020171
Jun 2020171
May 2020180
Apr 2020171
Mar 2020137
Feb 2020137
Jan 2020137
Dec 2019103
Nov 2019120
Oct 2019137
Sept 2019137
Aug 2019171
Jul 2019171
Jun 2019171
May 2019171
Apr 2019171
Mar 2019163
Feb 2019137
Jan 2019137
Dec 2018137
Nov 2018148
Oct 2018171
Sept 2018240
Aug 2018217
Jul 2018205
Jun 2018197
May 2018205
Apr 2018205
Mar 2018223
Feb 2018205
Jan 2018180
Dec 2017163
Nov 2017137
Oct 2017188
Sept 2017240
Aug 2017228
Jul 2017195
Jun 2017192
May 2017178
Apr 2017171
Mar 2017171
Feb 2017137
Jan 2017137
Dec 2016137
Nov 2016137
Oct 2016163
Sept 2016171
Aug 2016171
Jul 2016171
Jun 2016171
May 2016171
Apr 2016171
Mar 2016163
Feb 2016137
Jan 2016137
Dec 2015137
Nov 2015146
Oct 2015175
Sept 2015185
Aug 2015171
Jul 2015171
Jun 2015171
May 2015171
Apr 2015171
Mar 2015171
Feb 2015171
Jan 2015150

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3393-135-retail-kg.