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Rice (imported) in Sebba

SAHEL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

634–743

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

628–774

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 634 and 743 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 628 and 774 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Sebba: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 634 and 743 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 628 and 774 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,0001,250202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 660–722 699 647–774 757 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 646–734 696 600–819 770 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 634–743 686 594–847 763 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 625–765 684 567–913 765 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 628–774 682 592–973 758 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026700
Aug 2026700
Jul 2026700
Jun 2026700
May 2026640
Apr 2026700
Mar 2026700
Feb 2026700
Jan 2026700
Dec 2025700
Nov 2025700
Oct 2025700
Aug 2025800
Jul 2025750
Jun 2025750
May 2025700
Apr 2025700
Mar 2025710
Feb 2025700
Jan 2025750
Dec 2024725
Nov 2024700
Oct 2024775
Sept 2024700
Aug 2024700
Jul 2024700
Jun 2024700
May 2024700
Apr 2024700
Mar 2024700
Feb 2024700
Jan 2024640
Dec 2023600
Nov 2023600
Oct 2023600
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023600
Jul 2023600
Jun 2023600
May 2023600
Apr 2023642
Mar 2023613
Feb 2023600
Jan 2023580
Dec 2022700
Nov 2022700
Oct 2022700
Sept 2022650
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022425
May 2022420
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022400
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021400
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021400
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020400
Apr 2020400
Mar 2020400
Feb 2020400
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019400
Nov 2019400
Oct 2019400
Sept 2019400
Aug 2019400
Jul 2019400
Jun 2019400
May 2019400
Apr 2019400
Mar 2019400
Feb 2019400
Jan 2019400
Dec 2018400
Nov 2018400
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018400
Jul 2018388
Jun 2018400
May 2018400
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018400
Dec 2017400
Nov 2017400
Oct 2017400
Sept 2017400
Aug 2017400
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017400
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017400
Feb 2017400
Jan 2017400
Dec 2016400
Nov 2016400
Oct 2016400
Sept 2016400
Aug 2016400
Jul 2016400
Jun 2016400
May 2016400
Apr 2016400
Mar 2016400
Feb 2016400
Jan 2016400
Dec 2015400
Nov 2015400
Oct 2015400
Sept 2015400
Aug 2015400
Jul 2015400
Jun 2015400
May 2015400
Apr 2015400
Mar 2015400
Feb 2015400
Jan 2015400

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3393-64-retail-kg.