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Millet in Sebba

SAHEL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 31% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

406–725

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

399–829

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 406 and 725 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 399 and 829 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Sebba: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 406 and 725 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 399 and 829 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,314); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 542–699 607 502–745 945 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 473–731 610 461–863 853 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 406–725 554 315–1,014 738 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 396–770 568 258–1,209 770 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 399–829 598 240–1,314 839 –
Price history (139 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026597
Aug 2026606
Jul 2026597
Jun 2026716
May 2026633
Mar 2026735
Feb 2026746
Jan 2026735
Dec 2025706
Nov 2025580
Oct 2025662
Aug 2025746
Jul 2025741
Jun 2025735
May 2025735
Apr 2025735
Mar 2025618
Feb 2025580
Jan 2025580
Dec 2024543
Nov 2024471
Oct 2024531
Sept 2024743
Aug 2024725
Jul 2024725
Jun 2024652
May 2024652
Apr 2024652
Mar 2024652
Feb 2024652
Jan 2024652
Dec 2023652
Nov 2023725
Oct 2023797
Sept 2023797
Aug 2023797
Jul 2023797
Jun 2023725
May 2023768
Apr 2023779
Mar 2023725
Feb 2023725
Jan 2023696
Dec 2022616
Nov 2022580
Oct 2022580
Sept 2022580
Aug 2022601
Jul 2022606
Jun 2022473
May 2022455
Apr 2022455
Mar 2022398
Feb 2022379
Jan 2022379
Dec 2021322
Nov 2021258
Oct 2021265
Sept 2021265
Aug 2021242
Jul 2021227
Jun 2021227
May 2021227
Apr 2021227
Mar 2021227
Feb 2021218
Jan 2021189
Dec 2020189
Nov 2020199
Oct 2020265
Sept 2020256
Aug 2020227
Jul 2020227
Jun 2020227
May 2020227
Apr 2020227
Mar 2020189
Feb 2020189
Jan 2020189
Dec 2019152
Nov 2019170
Oct 2019189
Sept 2019189
Aug 2019218
Jul 2019220
Jun 2019227
May 2019227
Apr 2019227
Mar 2019208
Feb 2019189
Jan 2019189
Dec 2018189
Nov 2018189
Oct 2018220
Sept 2018284
Aug 2018303
Jul 2018303
Jun 2018303
May 2018303
Apr 2018280
Mar 2018265
Feb 2018265
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017218
Nov 2017202
Oct 2017246
Sept 2017303
Aug 2017303
Jul 2017265
Jun 2017265
May 2017227
Apr 2017208
Mar 2017189
Feb 2017189
Jan 2017170
Dec 2016152
Nov 2016152
Oct 2016212
Sept 2016227
Aug 2016227
Jul 2016227
Jun 2016227
May 2016227
Apr 2016215
Mar 2016189
Feb 2016189
Jan 2016189
Dec 2015189
Nov 2015189
Oct 2015237
Sept 2015265
Aug 2015227
Jul 2015227
Jun 2015215
May 2015227
Apr 2015278
Mar 2015227
Feb 2015227
Jan 2015181

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3393-73-retail-kg.