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Food basket in Sebba

SAHEL, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

5,899–10,274

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

5,767–11,579

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 8,615 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 5,899 and 10,274 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 5,767 and 11,579 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Sebba: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 8,615 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 5,899 and 10,274 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 5,767 and 11,579 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 17,066); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,758–9,743 8,585 7,209–10,311
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 6,953–10,163 8,603 6,612–11,886
Nov 2026
Next month		 5,899–10,274 7,922 4,506–13,319
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 5,718–10,825 8,140 4,016–16,028
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 5,767–11,579 8,477 3,511–17,066
Cost history (137 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20268,487
Aug 20268,615
Jul 20268,507
Jun 20269,915
May 20268,811
Mar 202610,163
Feb 202610,295
Jan 202610,143
Dec 20259,777
Nov 20258,265
Aug 202510,937
Jul 202510,877
Jun 202510,777
May 202510,777
Apr 202510,712
Mar 20259,216
Feb 20258,812
Jan 20258,681
Dec 20247,972
Nov 20246,975
Oct 20247,861
Sept 202410,802
Aug 202410,552
Jul 202410,552
Jun 20249,676
May 20249,676
Apr 20249,730
Mar 20249,676
Feb 20249,676
Jan 20249,676
Dec 20239,676
Nov 202310,619
Oct 202311,549
Sept 202311,549
Aug 202311,549
Jul 202311,549
Jun 202310,586
May 202311,201
Apr 202311,288
Mar 202310,552
Feb 202310,552
Jan 202310,204
Dec 20228,980
Nov 20228,548
Oct 20228,548
Sept 20228,548
Aug 20228,713
Jul 20228,752
Jun 20226,909
May 20226,693
Apr 20226,693
Mar 20225,685
Feb 20225,534
Jan 20225,534
Dec 20214,850
Nov 20213,935
Oct 20214,042
Sept 20214,042
Aug 20213,766
Jul 20213,586
Jun 20213,586
May 20213,464
Apr 20213,464
Mar 20213,403
Feb 20213,278
Jan 20212,884
Dec 20202,884
Nov 20203,004
Oct 20203,920
Sept 20203,812
Aug 20203,464
Jul 20203,464
Jun 20203,464
May 20203,464
Apr 20203,448
Mar 20202,947
Feb 20202,947
Jan 20202,884
Dec 20192,440
Nov 20192,656
Oct 20192,884
Sept 20193,008
Aug 20193,325
Jul 20193,367
Jun 20193,417
May 20193,403
Apr 20193,439
Mar 20193,175
Feb 20192,947
Jan 20192,925
Dec 20182,884
Nov 20182,761
Oct 20183,281
Sept 20184,270
Aug 20184,498
Jul 20184,437
Jun 20184,446
May 20184,437
Apr 20184,161
Mar 20183,981
Feb 20183,920
Jan 20183,691
Dec 20173,232
Nov 20173,040
Oct 20173,537
Sept 20174,376
Aug 20174,376
Jul 20173,920
Jun 20173,920
May 20173,433
Apr 20173,236
Mar 20173,008
Feb 20173,008
Jan 20172,656
Dec 20162,440
Nov 20162,440
Oct 20163,192
Sept 20163,464
Aug 20163,464
Jul 20163,464
Jun 20163,386
May 20163,439
Apr 20163,259
Mar 20162,930
Feb 20162,896
Jan 20162,884
Dec 20152,884
Nov 20152,822
Oct 20153,506
Sept 20153,967
Aug 20153,464
Jul 20153,464
Jun 20153,320
May 20153,464
Apr 20154,076
Mar 20153,340
Feb 20153,381

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508