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Food basket in Seytenga

SAHEL, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,729–5,014

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,817–5,462

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,226 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,729 and 5,014 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,817 and 5,462 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Seytenga: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,226 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,729 and 5,014 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,817 and 5,462 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,900–4,802 4,293 3,609–5,353
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,078–4,863 3,900 2,566–6,505
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,729–5,014 3,733 2,162–6,871
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,833–5,294 3,947 2,028–7,125
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,817–5,462 3,985 1,956–7,684
Cost history (139 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,274
Aug 20264,226
Jul 20264,274
Jun 20264,215
May 20264,274
Apr 20264,814
Mar 20264,970
Feb 20264,442
Jan 20264,310
Dec 20254,388
Nov 20254,188
Oct 20254,335
Sept 20255,211
Aug 20255,044
Jul 20255,437
Jun 20256,479
May 20255,797
Apr 20255,589
Mar 20256,375
Feb 20255,739
Jan 20256,003
Dec 20246,765
Nov 20245,222
Oct 20245,489
Sept 20246,456
Aug 20246,440
Jul 20246,136
Jun 20246,059
May 20245,981
Apr 20245,692
Mar 20245,469
Feb 20245,846
Jan 20244,301
Dec 20234,324
Nov 20234,124
Oct 20234,115
Sept 20235,487
Aug 20236,244
Jul 20236,111
Jun 20236,531
May 20235,062
Apr 20234,538
Mar 20234,462
Feb 20234,508
Jan 20234,345
Dec 20223,985
Nov 20223,761
Oct 20225,053
Sept 20225,618
Aug 20227,029
Jul 20225,934
Jun 20225,734
May 20225,715
Apr 20226,039
Mar 20226,039
Feb 20225,505
Jan 20225,037
Dec 20214,331
Nov 20213,682
Oct 20213,473
Sept 20213,892
Aug 20213,819
Jul 20213,652
Jun 20213,887
May 20213,732
Apr 20213,687
Mar 20213,622
Feb 20213,248
Jan 20212,843
Dec 20202,730
Nov 20202,699
Oct 20202,677
Sept 20203,526
Aug 20203,806
Jul 20203,382
Jun 20203,398
May 20203,362
Apr 20203,307
Mar 20203,200
Feb 20203,158
Jan 20202,834
Dec 20192,834
Nov 20192,728
Oct 20193,341
Sept 20193,531
Aug 20193,538
Jul 20193,563
Jun 20193,507
May 20193,531
Apr 20193,443
Mar 20193,398
Feb 20193,310
Jan 20193,266
Dec 20183,050
Nov 20182,810
Oct 20183,242
Aug 20184,535
Jul 20184,508
Jun 20184,307
May 20184,238
Apr 20184,238
Mar 20184,060
Feb 20183,374
Jan 20183,230
Dec 20173,266
Nov 20173,220
Oct 20173,049
Sept 20174,731
Aug 20174,539
Jul 20174,274
Jun 20174,490
May 20173,776
Apr 20173,495
Mar 20173,461
Feb 20173,364
Jan 20172,819
Dec 20162,818
Nov 20162,359
Oct 20162,465
Sept 20163,626
Aug 20163,769
Jul 20163,769
Jun 20163,709
May 20163,689
Apr 20163,689
Mar 20163,389
Feb 20163,257
Jan 20163,142
Dec 20152,820
Nov 20152,352
Oct 20152,582
Sept 20153,772
Aug 20153,779
Jul 20154,351
Jun 20154,339
May 20154,423
Apr 20153,446
Mar 20153,124
Feb 20152,979

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508