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Rice (imported) in Solenzo

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 1% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

436–516

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

414–539

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 436 and 516 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 414 and 539 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Solenzo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 436 and 516 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 414 and 539 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 448–509 489 433–542 494 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 443–512 487 428–562 497 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 436–516 476 417–556 492 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 425–526 473 384–592 493 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 414–539 473 361–644 492 –
Price history (139 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026495
Jul 2026456
Jun 2026450
May 2026450
Apr 2026450
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026450
Jan 2026450
Dec 2025450
Nov 2025463
Oct 2025488
Sept 2025442
Aug 2025475
Jul 2025481
Jun 2025500
May 2025500
Apr 2025500
Mar 2025535
Feb 2025550
Jan 2025540
Dec 2024550
Nov 2024525
Oct 2024550
Sept 2024550
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024550
May 2024550
Apr 2024550
Mar 2024550
Feb 2024488
Jan 2024425
Dec 2023425
Nov 2023425
Oct 2023425
Sept 2023425
Aug 2023425
Jul 2023425
Jun 2023419
May 2023400
Apr 2023400
Mar 2023400
Feb 2023400
Jan 2023400
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022400
Oct 2022400
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022415
Jul 2022425
Jun 2022419
May 2022400
Mar 2022400
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021400
Aug 2021385
Jul 2021375
Jun 2021375
May 2021375
Apr 2021375
Mar 2021375
Feb 2021375
Jan 2021375
Dec 2020375
Nov 2020375
Oct 2020375
Sept 2020375
Aug 2020375
Jul 2020375
Jun 2020375
May 2020375
Apr 2020375
Mar 2020375
Feb 2020375
Jan 2020375
Dec 2019375
Nov 2019375
Oct 2019375
Sept 2019375
Aug 2019375
Jul 2019375
Jun 2019375
May 2019375
Apr 2019375
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019375
Jan 2019375
Dec 2018375
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018375
May 2018375
Apr 2018375
Mar 2018375
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018375
Dec 2017375
Nov 2017375
Oct 2017375
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017375
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017375
May 2017375
Apr 2017375
Mar 2017375
Feb 2017375
Jan 2017375
Dec 2016375
Nov 2016375
Oct 2016375
Sept 2016375
Aug 2016375
Jul 2016375
Jun 2016375
May 2016375
Apr 2016375
Mar 2016375
Feb 2016375
Jan 2016375
Dec 2015375
Nov 2015420
Oct 2015375
Sept 2015375
Aug 2015375
Jul 2015375
Jun 2015375
May 2015375
Apr 2015375
Mar 2015375
Feb 2015375
Jan 2015375

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3395-64-retail-kg.