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Rice (local) in Solenzo

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

302–361

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

290–376

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 302 and 361 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 290 and 376 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Solenzo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 302 and 361 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 290 and 376 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 333–358 344 302–382 386 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 321–360 343 280–384 380 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 302–361 335 250–382 369 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 293–367 332 240–416 366 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 290–376 329 237–455 367 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026341
Aug 2026343
Jul 2026338
Jun 2026341
May 2026338
Apr 2026334
Mar 2026333
Feb 2026318
Jan 2026317
Dec 2025335
Nov 2025338
Oct 2025348
Sept 2025368
Aug 2025370
Jul 2025391
Jun 2025388
May 2025379
Apr 2025382
Mar 2025372
Feb 2025386
Jan 2025381
Dec 2024391
Nov 2024382
Oct 2024399
Sept 2024407
Aug 2024393
Jul 2024373
Jun 2024374
May 2024373
Apr 2024376
Mar 2024361
Feb 2024361
Jan 2024364
Dec 2023364
Nov 2023364
Oct 2023364
Sept 2023320
Aug 2023361
Jul 2023360
Jun 2023359
May 2023370
Apr 2023367
Mar 2023351
Feb 2023354
Jan 2023334
Dec 2022345
Nov 2022345
Oct 2022357
Sept 2022382
Aug 2022380
Jul 2022366
Jun 2022371
May 2022364
Apr 2022354
Mar 2022342
Feb 2022336
Jan 2022324
Dec 2021314
Nov 2021313
Oct 2021325
Sept 2021311
Aug 2021310
Jul 2021320
Jun 2021307
May 2021316
Apr 2021305
Mar 2021296
Feb 2021282
Jan 2021284
Dec 2020283
Nov 2020296
Oct 2020315
Sept 2020324
Aug 2020317
Jul 2020294
Jun 2020288
May 2020281
Apr 2020277
Mar 2020280
Feb 2020260
Jan 2020283
Dec 2019274
Nov 2019289
Oct 2019277
Sept 2019284
Aug 2019284
Jul 2019276
Jun 2019264
May 2019274
Apr 2019287
Mar 2019275
Feb 2019288
Jan 2019286
Dec 2018275
Nov 2018278
Oct 2018307
Sept 2018315
Aug 2018325
Jul 2018330
Jun 2018326
May 2018321
Apr 2018326
Mar 2018314
Feb 2018314
Jan 2018306
Dec 2017303
Nov 2017307
Oct 2017305
Sept 2017325
Aug 2017330
Jul 2017308
Jun 2017309
May 2017310
Apr 2017310
Mar 2017294
Feb 2017285
Jan 2017286
Dec 2016283
Nov 2016275
Oct 2016284
Sept 2016294
Aug 2016293
Jul 2016293
Jun 2016295
May 2016295
Apr 2016289
Mar 2016273
Feb 2016260
Jan 2016253
Dec 2015261
Nov 2015284
Oct 2015300
Sept 2015303
Aug 2015304
Jul 2015304
Jun 2015309
May 2015303
Apr 2015295
Mar 2015287
Feb 2015275
Jan 2015279

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3395-71-retail-kg.