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Food basket in Solenzo

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,117–3,420

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,798–3,401

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 2,729 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,117 and 3,420 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,798 and 3,401 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Solenzo: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 2,729 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,117 and 3,420 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,798 and 3,401 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,436–3,066 2,729 2,162–3,423
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,215–3,274 2,692 1,937–4,115
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,117–3,420 2,682 1,474–4,197
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,778–3,388 2,521 1,304–4,717
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,798–3,401 2,539 1,168–4,415
Cost history (130 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20262,909
Aug 20262,729
Jul 20262,514
Jun 20262,510
May 20262,563
Apr 20262,555
Mar 20262,743
Feb 20262,611
Dec 20252,530
Nov 20252,566
Oct 20252,551
Sept 20252,839
Aug 20253,344
Jul 20253,457
Jun 20253,633
May 20254,038
Apr 20254,215
Mar 20254,274
Feb 20254,025
Dec 20243,803
Nov 20244,502
Oct 20244,519
Sept 20244,838
Aug 20244,675
Jul 20244,358
Jun 20243,860
May 20243,589
Apr 20243,359
Mar 20243,527
Feb 20243,149
Jan 20242,957
Dec 20232,984
Nov 20233,538
Oct 20233,209
Sept 20232,969
Aug 20232,954
Jul 20232,738
Jun 20232,765
May 20233,134
Apr 20233,244
Mar 20233,193
Feb 20233,431
Jan 20233,401
Dec 20223,128
Nov 20223,941
Oct 20224,404
Sept 20224,404
Aug 20224,546
Jul 20224,426
Jun 20224,410
May 20224,066
Apr 20224,303
Mar 20223,966
Feb 20223,313
Dec 20213,247
Nov 20212,941
Oct 20212,749
Sept 20212,638
Aug 20212,481
Jul 20212,419
Jun 20212,318
May 20212,492
Apr 20212,575
Mar 20212,396
Feb 20212,224
Jan 20212,130
Dec 20202,124
Nov 20202,423
Oct 20202,404
Sept 20202,620
Aug 20202,535
Jul 20202,372
Jun 20202,219
May 20202,188
Apr 20202,117
Mar 20201,979
Dec 20191,790
Nov 20191,756
Oct 20191,674
Sept 20191,763
Aug 20191,786
Jul 20191,798
Jun 20191,750
May 20191,927
Apr 20191,937
Mar 20191,964
Jan 20192,170
Dec 20182,119
Nov 20182,220
Oct 20182,480
Sept 20182,921
Aug 20183,070
Jul 20183,106
Jun 20183,095
May 20182,806
Apr 20182,813
Mar 20182,774
Dec 20172,431
Nov 20172,577
Oct 20172,801
Sept 20172,972
Aug 20172,842
Jul 20172,601
Jun 20172,837
May 20172,675
Apr 20172,658
Mar 20172,486
Jan 20172,144
Dec 20162,230
Nov 20162,431
Oct 20162,355
Sept 20162,124
Aug 20162,141
Jul 20162,140
Jun 20162,256
May 20162,555
Apr 20162,288
Mar 20162,195
Jan 20162,013
Dec 20151,967
Nov 20152,072
Oct 20152,222
Sept 20152,401
Aug 20152,245
Jul 20152,399
Jun 20152,501
May 20152,369
Apr 20152,180
Mar 20152,150
Feb 20152,091

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508