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Rice (local) in Tita

CENTRE-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

391–437

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

386–451

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 391 and 437 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 386 and 451 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Tita: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 391 and 437 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 386 and 451 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 407–438 418 394–454 465 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 398–437 416 387–461 462 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 391–437 409 360–452 452 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 390–444 409 369–486 464 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 386–451 411 367–495 470 –
Price history (121 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026419
Aug 2026419
Jul 2026430
Jun 2026413
May 2026417
Apr 2026412
Mar 2026411
Feb 2026424
Jan 2026425
Dec 2025426
Nov 2025417
Oct 2025433
Aug 2025493
Jun 2025500
May 2025500
Apr 2025458
Mar 2025450
Jan 2025489
Dec 2024468
Oct 2024470
Sept 2024471
Jul 2024438
Jun 2024426
May 2024417
Apr 2024417
Mar 2024425
Feb 2024413
Jan 2024408
Dec 2023441
Sept 2023408
May 2023396
Mar 2023378
Feb 2023367
Jan 2023400
Dec 2022411
Oct 2022405
Sept 2022417
Aug 2022427
Jun 2022358
May 2022388
Apr 2022392
Mar 2022368
Feb 2022374
Jan 2022369
Dec 2021355
Nov 2021360
Oct 2021345
Sept 2021330
Aug 2021341
Jul 2021333
Jun 2021333
May 2021330
Apr 2021333
Mar 2021333
Feb 2021333
Jan 2021331
Dec 2020333
Nov 2020338
Oct 2020333
Sept 2020333
Aug 2020338
Jul 2020318
Jun 2020331
Mar 2020326
Dec 2019317
Nov 2019313
Oct 2019317
Sept 2019317
Aug 2019318
Jul 2019314
Jun 2019312
May 2019317
Apr 2019317
Mar 2019316
Feb 2019317
Jan 2019317
Dec 2018314
Nov 2018314
Oct 2018316
Sept 2018320
Aug 2018320
Jul 2018320
Jun 2018316
May 2018317
Apr 2018317
Mar 2018317
Feb 2018317
Jan 2018317
Dec 2017317
Nov 2017317
Oct 2017318
Sept 2017323
Aug 2017317
Jul 2017318
Jun 2017314
Apr 2017317
Mar 2017320
Feb 2017313
Jan 2017315
Nov 2016316
Oct 2016313
Sept 2016318
Aug 2016322
Jul 2016320
Jun 2016321
May 2016321
Apr 2016323
Mar 2016327
Feb 2016327
Jan 2016321
Dec 2015320
Nov 2015317
Oct 2015322
Sept 2015322
Aug 2015322
Jul 2015326
Jun 2015303
May 2015304
Apr 2015300
Mar 2015290
Feb 2015295

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3396-71-retail-kg.