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Sorghum (white) in Titao

NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 44% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

130–233

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

122–252

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 44% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 130 and 233 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 122 and 252 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Titao: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 44% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 130 and 233 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 122 and 252 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 170–223 198 156–237 375 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 156–233 194 138–241 358 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 130–233 184 74.5–264 315 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 122–241 185 65.8–285 320 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 122–252 188 67.5–330 334 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026218
Aug 2026198
Jul 2026205
Jun 2026205
May 2026187
Apr 2026161
Mar 2026181
Feb 2026163
Jan 2026181
Dec 2025166
Nov 2025191
Oct 2025292
Sept 2025301
Aug 2025333
Jul 2025309
Jun 2025317
May 2025354
Apr 2025357
Mar 2025363
Feb 2025361
Jan 2025356
Dec 2024341
Nov 2024362
Oct 2024381
Sept 2024410
Aug 2024369
Jul 2024369
Jun 2024346
May 2024328
Apr 2024353
Mar 2024358
Feb 2024325
Jan 2024321
Dec 2023349
Nov 2023342
Oct 2023374
Sept 2023372
Aug 2023364
Jul 2023344
Jun 2023319
May 2023371
Apr 2023376
Mar 2023405
Feb 2023417
Jan 2023494
Dec 2022444
Nov 2022357
Oct 2022395
Sept 2022443
Aug 2022461
Jul 2022396
Jun 2022390
May 2022380
Apr 2022349
Mar 2022296
Feb 2022246
Jan 2022228
Dec 2021211
Nov 2021176
Oct 2021174
Sept 2021162
Aug 2021172
Jul 2021179
Jun 2021166
May 2021164
Apr 2021163
Mar 2021147
Feb 2021138
Jan 2021141
Dec 2020132
Nov 2020133
Oct 2020136
Sept 2020147
Aug 2020135
Jul 2020126
Jun 2020114
May 2020113
Apr 2020118
Mar 2020130
Feb 2020131
Jan 2020121
Dec 2019113
Nov 2019129
Oct 2019127
Sept 2019127
Aug 2019129
Jul 2019134
Jun 2019152
May 2019164
Apr 2019152
Mar 2019149
Feb 2019143
Jan 2019137
Dec 2018136
Nov 2018136
Oct 2018152
Sept 2018193
Aug 2018205
Jul 2018210
Jun 2018211
May 2018213
Apr 2018193
Mar 2018187
Feb 2018174
Jan 2018142
Dec 2017136
Nov 2017136
Oct 2017177
Sept 2017180
Aug 2017184
Jul 2017168
Jun 2017178
May 2017164
Apr 2017161
Mar 2017164
Feb 2017154
Jan 2017139
Dec 2016139
Nov 2016129
Oct 2016164
Sept 2016162
Aug 2016152
Jul 2016145
Jun 2016159
May 2016160
Apr 2016152
Mar 2016148
Feb 2016130
Jan 2016117
Dec 2015114
Nov 2015117
Oct 2015133
Sept 2015155
Aug 2015154
Jul 2015175
Jun 2015152
May 2015152
Apr 2015145
Mar 2015140
Feb 2015140
Jan 2015132

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3397-135-retail-kg.