Staple Signals Français

Home › Burkina Faso

Sorghum (white) in Toma

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 18% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

161–224

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

150–237

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 161 and 224 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 150 and 237 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Toma: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 161 and 224 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 150 and 237 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 180–220 203 173–225 258 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 169–223 202 169–235 248 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 161–224 198 148–246 239 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 151–231 194 127–263 231 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 150–237 195 116–271 237 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026221
Aug 2026207
Jul 2026187
Jun 2026188
May 2026197
Apr 2026201
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026199
Jan 2026172
Dec 2025163
Nov 2025176
Oct 2025197
Sept 2025226
Aug 2025240
Jul 2025258
Jun 2025263
May 2025264
Apr 2025261
Mar 2025261
Feb 2025255
Jan 2025226
Dec 2024225
Nov 2024257
Oct 2024281
Sept 2024277
Aug 2024278
Jul 2024261
Jun 2024256
May 2024248
Apr 2024232
Mar 2024224
Feb 2024215
Jan 2024230
Dec 2023223
Nov 2023224
Oct 2023223
Sept 2023219
Aug 2023210
Jul 2023211
Jun 2023215
May 2023209
Apr 2023208
Mar 2023215
Feb 2023230
Jan 2023215
Dec 2022209
Nov 2022219
Oct 2022237
Sept 2022280
Aug 2022277
Jul 2022275
Jun 2022268
May 2022262
Apr 2022273
Mar 2022234
Feb 2022217
Jan 2022188
Dec 2021175
Nov 2021166
Oct 2021165
Sept 2021169
Aug 2021179
Jul 2021170
Jun 2021168
May 2021157
Apr 2021152
Mar 2021156
Feb 2021151
Jan 2021147
Dec 2020139
Nov 2020145
Oct 2020149
Sept 2020154
Aug 2020156
Jul 2020151
Jun 2020143
May 2020129
Apr 2020141
Mar 2020141
Feb 2020138
Jan 2020137
Dec 2019135
Nov 2019135
Oct 2019133
Sept 2019131
Aug 2019131
Jul 2019130
Jun 2019147
May 2019132
Apr 2019138
Mar 2019137
Feb 2019146
Jan 2019143
Dec 2018145
Nov 2018154
Oct 2018156
Sept 2018164
Aug 2018168
Jul 2018172
Jun 2018166
May 2018166
Apr 2018167
Mar 2018166
Feb 2018162
Jan 2018159
Dec 2017160
Nov 2017157
Oct 2017161
Sept 2017161
Aug 2017158
Jul 2017153
Jun 2017153
May 2017155
Apr 2017152
Mar 2017151
Feb 2017143
Jan 2017142
Dec 2016140
Nov 2016150
Oct 2016157
Sept 2016157
Aug 2016154
Jul 2016155
Jun 2016155
May 2016145
Apr 2016147
Mar 2016146
Feb 2016145
Jan 2016144
Dec 2015148
Nov 2015149
Oct 2015155
Sept 2015163
Aug 2015156
Jul 2015156
Jun 2015160
May 2015159
Apr 2015141
Mar 2015145
Feb 2015143
Jan 2015120

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3398-135-retail-kg.