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Maize (white) in Toma

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

166–233

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

152–245

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 166 and 233 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 152 and 245 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Toma: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 166 and 233 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 152 and 245 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 193–229 213 175–230 276 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 185–233 213 161–237 269 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 166–233 209 117–256 254 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 158–234 206 117–257 248 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 152–245 205 96.4–301 251 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026230
Aug 2026213
Jul 2026197
Jun 2026200
May 2026209
Apr 2026210
Mar 2026209
Feb 2026209
Jan 2026186
Dec 2025176
Nov 2025187
Oct 2025209
Sept 2025235
Aug 2025253
Jul 2025272
Jun 2025276
May 2025264
Apr 2025276
Mar 2025276
Feb 2025269
Jan 2025242
Dec 2024241
Nov 2024270
Oct 2024296
Sept 2024293
Aug 2024295
Jul 2024281
Jun 2024251
May 2024253
Apr 2024253
Mar 2024254
Feb 2024240
Jan 2024241
Dec 2023241
Nov 2023234
Oct 2023236
Sept 2023236
Aug 2023232
Jul 2023228
Jun 2023230
May 2023231
Apr 2023220
Mar 2023225
Feb 2023229
Jan 2023230
Dec 2022225
Nov 2022229
Oct 2022276
Sept 2022305
Aug 2022300
Jul 2022289
Jun 2022283
May 2022279
Apr 2022277
Mar 2022251
Feb 2022233
Jan 2022218
Dec 2021210
Nov 2021199
Oct 2021197
Sept 2021201
Aug 2021204
Jul 2021208
Jun 2021206
May 2021189
Apr 2021173
Mar 2021172
Feb 2021162
Jan 2021158
Dec 2020161
Nov 2020162
Oct 2020165
Sept 2020164
Aug 2020161
Jul 2020151
Jun 2020149
May 2020149
Apr 2020149
Mar 2020147
Feb 2020144
Jan 2020144
Dec 2019143
Nov 2019142
Oct 2019144
Sept 2019144
Aug 2019143
Jul 2019145
Jun 2019149
May 2019148
Apr 2019149
Mar 2019149
Feb 2019158
Jan 2019153
Dec 2018156
Nov 2018169
Oct 2018193
Sept 2018195
Aug 2018194
Jul 2018186
Jun 2018182
May 2018181
Apr 2018183
Mar 2018183
Feb 2018170
Jan 2018167
Dec 2017164
Nov 2017165
Oct 2017164
Sept 2017168
Aug 2017162
Jul 2017162
Jun 2017171
May 2017169
Apr 2017167
Mar 2017161
Feb 2017162
Jan 2017162
Dec 2016161
Nov 2016169
Oct 2016174
Sept 2016172
Aug 2016170
Jul 2016174
Jun 2016174
May 2016160
Apr 2016152
Mar 2016152
Feb 2016152
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015173
Nov 2015164
Oct 2015171
Sept 2015171
Aug 2015171
Jul 2015168
Jun 2015173
May 2015168
Apr 2015143
Mar 2015153
Feb 2015151
Jan 2015132

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3398-67-retail-kg.