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Millet in Toma

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

217–302

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

195–319

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 217 and 302 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 195 and 319 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Toma: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 217 and 302 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 195 and 319 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 240–280 261 233–288 317 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 231–293 262 225–293 313 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 217–302 257 182–318 303 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 203–306 255 156–316 294 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 195–319 254 129–377 302 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026269
Aug 2026259
Jul 2026248
Jun 2026249
May 2026252
Apr 2026253
Mar 2026254
Feb 2026244
Jan 2026238
Dec 2025233
Nov 2025244
Oct 2025261
Sept 2025276
Aug 2025274
Jul 2025304
Jun 2025317
May 2025322
Apr 2025320
Mar 2025320
Feb 2025315
Jan 2025298
Dec 2024283
Nov 2024318
Oct 2024297
Sept 2024318
Aug 2024319
Jul 2024297
Jun 2024288
May 2024279
Apr 2024276
Mar 2024273
Feb 2024271
Jan 2024271
Dec 2023271
Nov 2023253
Oct 2023255
Sept 2023253
Aug 2023244
Jul 2023239
Jun 2023240
May 2023240
Apr 2023241
Mar 2023264
Feb 2023281
Jan 2023266
Dec 2022255
Nov 2022307
Oct 2022324
Sept 2022327
Aug 2022327
Jul 2022324
Jun 2022325
May 2022323
Apr 2022320
Mar 2022258
Feb 2022239
Jan 2022214
Dec 2021201
Nov 2021190
Oct 2021193
Sept 2021194
Aug 2021194
Jul 2021197
Jun 2021196
May 2021195
Apr 2021192
Mar 2021190
Feb 2021187
Jan 2021183
Dec 2020191
Nov 2020190
Oct 2020192
Sept 2020195
Aug 2020177
Jul 2020167
Jun 2020168
May 2020167
Apr 2020162
Mar 2020160
Feb 2020142
Jan 2020149
Dec 2019146
Nov 2019145
Oct 2019145
Sept 2019141
Aug 2019144
Jul 2019141
Jun 2019145
May 2019147
Apr 2019152
Mar 2019148
Feb 2019162
Jan 2019165
Dec 2018155
Nov 2018165
Oct 2018192
Sept 2018202
Aug 2018203
Jul 2018205
Jun 2018201
May 2018201
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018199
Feb 2018194
Jan 2018192
Dec 2017192
Nov 2017193
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017201
Aug 2017192
Jul 2017183
Jun 2017177
May 2017181
Apr 2017173
Mar 2017170
Feb 2017169
Jan 2017169
Dec 2016164
Nov 2016169
Oct 2016176
Sept 2016165
Aug 2016164
Jul 2016163
Jun 2016162
May 2016163
Apr 2016160
Mar 2016160
Feb 2016160
Jan 2016161
Dec 2015170
Nov 2015168
Oct 2015176
Sept 2015186
Aug 2015186
Jul 2015177
Jun 2015190
May 2015180
Apr 2015147
Mar 2015154
Feb 2015155
Jan 2015157

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3398-73-retail-kg.