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Food basket in Toma

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,276–4,437

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,946–4,748

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,918 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,276 and 4,437 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,946 and 4,748 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Toma: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,918 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,276 and 4,437 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,946 and 4,748 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,646–4,157 3,917 3,540–4,296
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,490–4,279 3,882 3,315–4,410
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,276–4,437 3,858 2,863–4,676
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,069–4,482 3,800 2,444–4,757
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,946–4,748 3,852 2,088–5,599
Cost history (140 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,063
Aug 20263,918
Jul 20263,800
Jun 20263,805
May 20263,847
Apr 20263,862
Mar 20263,883
Feb 20263,752
Jan 20263,673
Dec 20253,559
Nov 20253,680
Oct 20253,962
Sept 20254,365
Aug 20254,501
Jul 20254,688
Jun 20254,931
May 20255,036
Apr 20255,042
Mar 20255,055
Feb 20254,964
Jan 20254,591
Dec 20244,292
Nov 20244,624
Oct 20244,437
Sept 20244,853
Aug 20244,791
Jul 20244,549
Jun 20244,388
May 20244,230
Apr 20244,129
Mar 20244,151
Feb 20243,968
Jan 20243,905
Dec 20233,878
Nov 20233,675
Oct 20233,600
Sept 20233,547
Aug 20233,461
Jul 20233,379
Jun 20233,400
May 20233,362
Apr 20233,362
Mar 20233,717
Feb 20233,917
Jan 20233,676
Dec 20223,596
Nov 20224,202
Oct 20224,556
Sept 20224,856
Aug 20224,858
Jul 20224,820
Jun 20224,870
May 20224,830
Apr 20224,814
Mar 20224,014
Feb 20223,716
Jan 20223,389
Dec 20213,085
Nov 20213,117
Oct 20213,029
Sept 20213,154
Aug 20213,098
Jul 20213,122
Jun 20213,101
May 20213,073
Apr 20213,031
Mar 20213,000
Feb 20212,923
Jan 20212,806
Dec 20202,841
Nov 20202,809
Oct 20202,893
Sept 20203,008
Aug 20202,720
Jul 20202,533
Jun 20202,529
May 20202,510
Apr 20202,450
Mar 20202,426
Feb 20202,168
Jan 20202,173
Dec 20192,116
Nov 20192,098
Oct 20192,163
Sept 20192,138
Aug 20192,180
Jul 20192,124
Jun 20192,159
May 20192,261
Apr 20192,335
Mar 20192,294
Feb 20192,461
Jan 20192,491
Dec 20182,310
Nov 20182,439
Oct 20182,774
Sept 20183,103
Aug 20183,100
Jul 20183,099
Jun 20183,065
May 20183,067
Apr 20182,960
Mar 20182,950
Feb 20182,920
Jan 20182,903
Dec 20172,786
Nov 20172,807
Oct 20172,913
Sept 20173,058
Aug 20172,963
Jul 20172,840
Jun 20172,878
May 20172,816
Apr 20172,719
Mar 20172,665
Feb 20172,552
Jan 20172,579
Dec 20162,488
Nov 20162,575
Oct 20162,693
Sept 20162,518
Aug 20162,609
Jul 20162,537
Jun 20162,477
May 20162,555
Apr 20162,397
Mar 20162,444
Feb 20162,327
Jan 20162,414
Dec 20152,445
Nov 20152,426
Oct 20152,665
Sept 20152,785
Aug 20152,779
Jul 20152,596
Jun 20152,771
May 20152,696
Apr 20152,293
Mar 20152,327
Feb 20152,319

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508