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Rice (imported) in Yako

NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 5% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

423–540

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

397–571

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 14% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 423 and 540 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 397 and 571 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Yako: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 14% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 423 and 540 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 397 and 571 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 753); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 461–533 503 441–567 548 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 450–538 501 412–590 545 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 423–540 481 393–575 528 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 410–550 473 340–631 531 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 397–571 473 317–753 526 –
Price history (122 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026513
Jul 2026480
Jun 2026450
May 2026450
Apr 2026450
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026406
Jan 2026413
Dec 2025410
Nov 2025400
Oct 2025520
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025550
Jul 2025550
Jun 2025513
May 2025500
Apr 2025530
Mar 2025550
Feb 2025550
Jan 2025525
Dec 2024550
Nov 2024550
Oct 2024550
Sept 2024550
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024510
May 2024500
Apr 2024500
Mar 2024500
Feb 2024500
Jan 2024500
Dec 2023490
Nov 2023480
Oct 2023480
Sept 2023480
Aug 2023480
Jul 2023480
Jun 2023475
May 2023475
Apr 2023460
Mar 2023460
Feb 2023460
Jan 2023460
Dec 2022460
Nov 2022460
Oct 2022476
Sept 2022480
Aug 2022480
Jul 2022480
Jun 2022480
May 2022480
Apr 2022446
Mar 2022430
Feb 2022390
Jan 2022390
Dec 2021390
Nov 2021390
Oct 2021390
Sept 2021385
Aug 2021380
Jul 2021378
Jun 2021370
May 2021366
Apr 2021370
Mar 2021370
Feb 2021370
Jan 2021370
Dec 2020370
Nov 2020370
Oct 2020370
Sept 2020370
Aug 2020366
Jul 2020365
Jun 2020370
May 2020370
Apr 2020370
Mar 2020370
Feb 2020370
Jan 2020370
Dec 2019370
Nov 2019370
Oct 2019370
Sept 2019370
Aug 2019374
Jul 2019375
Jun 2019375
May 2019375
Apr 2019375
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019375
Jan 2019375
Dec 2018375
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018371
Sept 2018370
Aug 2018370
Dec 2016340
Nov 2016340
Oct 2016340
Sept 2016340
Aug 2016340
Jul 2016340
Jun 2016340
May 2016340
Apr 2016340
Mar 2016340
Feb 2016340
Jan 2016340
Dec 2015340
Nov 2015340
Oct 2015340
Sept 2015340
Aug 2015366
Jul 2015390
Jun 2015390
May 2015390
Apr 2015390
Mar 2015390
Feb 2015390
Jan 2015390

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3399-64-retail-kg.