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Sorghum (white) in Yalgo

CENTRE-NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 24% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

206–274

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

188–295

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 206 and 274 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 188 and 295 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Yalgo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 206 and 274 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 188 and 295 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 233–267 249 212–278 341 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 215–273 249 208–293 331 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 206–274 246 199–308 317 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 192–285 243 169–323 306 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 188–295 243 151–369 303 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026263
Aug 2026250
Jul 2026250
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026238
Mar 2026238
Feb 2026238
Jan 2026238
Dec 2025233
Nov 2025250
Oct 2025269
Sept 2025290
Aug 2025300
Jul 2025317
Jun 2025325
May 2025325
Apr 2025325
Mar 2025325
Feb 2025335
Jan 2025324
Dec 2024375
Nov 2024375
Oct 2024400
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024375
Jul 2024344
Jun 2024325
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024290
Feb 2024275
Jan 2024275
Dec 2023275
Nov 2023275
Oct 2023280
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023300
May 2023300
Apr 2023285
Mar 2023274
Feb 2023274
Jan 2023257
Dec 2022264
Nov 2022300
Oct 2022313
Sept 2022350
Aug 2022350
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022342
May 2022315
Apr 2022325
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022275
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021216
Sept 2021209
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021193
Jan 2021166
Dec 2020168
Nov 2020175
Oct 2020194
Sept 2020205
Aug 2020206
Jul 2020181
Jun 2020175
May 2020174
Apr 2020159
Mar 2020148
Feb 2020144
Jan 2020144
Dec 2019140
Nov 2019159
Oct 2019159
Sept 2019157
Aug 2019165
Jul 2019176
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019200
Jan 2019200
Dec 2018200
Nov 2018194
Oct 2018225
Sept 2018228
Aug 2018238
Jul 2018238
Jun 2018225
May 2018225
Apr 2018225
Mar 2018225
Feb 2018225
Jan 2018225
Dec 2017210
Nov 2017206
Oct 2017231
Sept 2017241
Aug 2017233
Jul 2017197
Jun 2017191
May 2017179
Apr 2017179
Mar 2017179
Feb 2017178
Jan 2017178
Dec 2016181
Nov 2016191
Oct 2016191
Sept 2016191
Aug 2016191
Jul 2016191
Jun 2016191
May 2016191
Apr 2016191
Mar 2016184
Feb 2016179
Jan 2016179
Dec 2015179
Nov 2015172
Oct 2015191
Sept 2015191
Aug 2015191
Jul 2015179
Jun 2015171
May 2015171
Apr 2015170
Mar 2015170
Feb 2015162
Jan 2015158

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3400-135-retail-kg.