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Rice (local) in Yalgo

CENTRE-NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

374–579

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

328–597

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 374 and 579 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 328 and 597 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Yalgo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 374 and 579 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 328 and 597 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 414–522 468 403–615 610 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 390–570 472 313–718 635 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 374–579 463 333–776 582 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 353–576 438 343–881 513 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 328–597 433 261–838 500 –
Price history (76 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026403
Aug 2026469
Jul 2026469
Jun 2026441
May 2026417
Apr 2026395
Mar 2026375
Feb 2026341
Jan 2026341
Dec 2025352
Nov 2025667
Oct 2025667
Sept 2025667
Aug 2025565
Jul 2025564
Jun 2025562
May 2025560
Apr 2025604
Mar 2025534
Feb 2025667
Jan 2025541
Dec 2024523
Nov 2024558
Oct 2024800
Sept 2024679
Aug 2024529
Jul 2024527
Jun 2024527
May 2024497
Apr 2024473
Mar 2024546
Feb 2024546
Jan 2024494
Dec 2023497
Nov 2023476
Oct 2023467
Sept 2023449
Aug 2023422
Jul 2023445
Jun 2023441
May 2023425
Apr 2023402
Mar 2023405
Feb 2023402
Jan 2023407
Dec 2022425
Nov 2022470
Oct 2022494
Sept 2022494
Aug 2022494
Jul 2022494
Jun 2022503
May 2022510
Apr 2022492
Mar 2022401
Feb 2022394
Jan 2022370
Dec 2021370
Nov 2021370
Oct 2021422
Sept 2021406
Aug 2021408
Jul 2021397
Jun 2021389
May 2021378
Apr 2021356
Mar 2021361
Feb 2021369
Jan 2021353
Dec 2020391
Nov 2020391
Oct 2020391
Sept 2020391
Aug 2020391
Jul 2020391
Jun 2020390

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3400-71-retail-kg.